Sunday didn’t get too much in the way of showers as anticipated, but some places definitely did, mainly on the Olympic coast. Are we going to be moving back to the sunny weather, or are we sticking with the clouds and rain?
Saturday – High 64°F, Low 51°F; Some scattered showers in the wee hours of the morning, but dry overall. Winds started out pretty strong and gusty, peaking at 26mph at one point. The gusts calmed down in the late afternoon, but winds stayed breezy. Skies were partly cloudy with sun breaks in the afternoon.
Sunday – High 63°F, Low 54°F; Still breezy throughout the day, but very little in the way of gusts. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy all day, with no rain in the Sound area.
Monday – High 67°F; Winds were the same as Sunday. This time skies were partly cloudy with a few more sun breaks, and no showers rolling through.
WARNINGS – We have 2 warnings out, all for the waterways. We have a Gale Warning for the Strait and the entrance into the Sound, with all other waterways seeing a Small Craft Advisory. For more info, please see here.
A cold air mass will be moving in overnight, so expect cooler temperatures right off the bat. This air mass will slow down as it makes landfall, so we can expect it to stick around for a few days at least. As we move into Wednesday, a ridge will start to build and push east, which will start to push that cold air mass away. It will still be over us by the end of the forecast, but it will be on its way out.
These next couple of days will be a little interesting on the surface map, mainly because there isn’t much there. When these cold air masses move in, we normally see them in the form of troughs, which normally brings in a low pressure center and some rain. I’m not seeing any low pressure or fronts for this forecast, but there is some fluctuation in the jet stream and the pressure at the surface, so we could see some disturbances and showers. Since there isn’t any significant items on the surface map, I will be skipping it for this forecast.
It looks like the leading edge of the cold air mass will bring in some rain, so we’re getting some right off the bat. Most of the rain will fall before the morning commute even starts, but we could have some showers by the time people start heading to work. For the rest of the day on Tuesday, a very small part of central Sound will see consistent showers/rain due to a convergence zone (as with all convergence zones, this position can vary a little). South Sound should stay relatively dry after the initial rainfall in the morning, while north Sound will see scattered showers throughout the day after the morning. The showers will start to dry out overnight with the exception of some areas (mainly the mountains), but they will start to increase again towards Wednesday evening. This time north Sound will stay relatively dry (still with some showers), south Sound will get some consistent rain, and central Sound will see the heaviest of the areas as another convergence zone forms. Although temperatures are on the cool side, the CAPE model is showing some pretty strong signs of thunderstorms. I’m not promising anything, but we may hear some thunder throughout the day on both days. Now I get to post the CAPE model!
Let’s see if you put 2 and 2 together. Cold temperatures moving in? Check. Precipitation in the mountains? Check. Precipitation in the mountains, in frozen form? …Check! With temperatures dropping, the snow level will be dropping as well, so the lower parts of the mountains (including the ski resorts hopefully) will see some snowfall. This is definitely too little too late for Snoqualmie Pass, but Stevens Pass may start operations again. We’ll get decent snowfall Tuesday morning as the initial system moves in, then that will dry out a little as the day progresses and the sun comes up (with the exception of the convergence zone). Wednesday won’t see as much snow, with more of a mix falling, possibly even some showers. That is, until the evening at least! More snow will come down by the end of the forecast period, mainly for the central and southern ranges of the Cascades.
With these new systems moving in, we can expect cloudy skies as usual. Although given the nature of the systems, we should see some cloud breaks as well. We’ll see the clouds start to lighten up in the afternoon, and from there we’ll stick with the partly to mostly cloudy skies until Wednesday afternoon. At that point, we’ll see an increase in cover again, and by the end of the forecast the skies will start to clear again.
Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,
And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.
As the first wave of rain moves in overnight, winds will increase as well. Higher speeds will stay over water, but we will see strong winds over the Olympics, along the northern coast, and in parts of Kitsap. All other areas will see slightly weaker winds. This will be the case for the start of Monday through the evening. As Monday progresses, the winds for south Sound will increase, while central will actually weaken. Winds for all areas will start to decrease overnight, and the first half of Wednesday will actually be on the calm side. Once we move into the afternoon and the new system starts to move in, some areas will have an increase in winds as well, mainly south Sound and parts of north Sound. And as quick as it moved in, it will move out again, calming by the end of the forecast.
As I’ve been saying the entire post, temperatures will be cooling down. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 50s for the entire Sound, with the exception of a small warmer area in central Sound, that small area consisting of the Seattle/Bremerton area. Lows will be in the low 40s, warming a little closer to the water. Wednesday will actually have the same highs, but with no warm spot in the middle. Lows will be the same as well, with some slightly cooler temperatures in south Sound.
TL;DR: Cool temperatures with some rain moving in, along with the possibility of some thunderstorms!