09/03/15: Gameday!

As I said on Tuesday, the length of the post will determine on factors today. Because of my workload today, it will be a short post.

We’ll have showers overnight tonight, which will dry out for the weekend, giving us a last taste of summer through Saturday before the weather really starts to change. Skies will slowly clear up until Saturday, where it looks like a new system will move in on Sunday. Things still look to stay breezy, but we’ll have a slight warming trend through Saturday, with Sunday cooling back down to what we’ve been seeing. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the low 70s, with Sunday dipping to mid 60s. Lows will stay fairly consistent, in the low to mid 50s all weekend.

Again, sorry for the short post, but I don’t have the time to do a full one today. Go Hawks and Go Huskies!

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09/01/15: First day of fall! Kind of!

Most people refer to the first day of autumn as the Autumnal Equinox, when the Earth is in a position where the sun is directly overhead on the Equator. While this is all fine and dandy from a astronomical point of view, meteorologists notice the change from summer weather to fall weather a little earlier, so we just round it to the first of the month and celebrate the meteorological first day of fall.

*NOTE* I will try to at least do a small forecast on Thursday, but it will all depend on if I have time. It will be a Gameday decision (heh), as I may not have time during work and am leaving early for the Seahawks game. We’ll see how it goes.

Recap

Monday – High 68°F, Low 62°F; Mostly cloudy all day, with windy conditions all day, peaking in the afternoon. Scattered showers throughout the day, but mostly trace amounts.

Tuesday – High 68°F; Rainy and overcast all day. Things have been pretty windy all day as well, but not as bad as it has been.

WARNINGS – The only warning we have right now is a Special Weather Statement, regarding a snow level droop to around 6,000 feet, which may affect hikers. That’s right, it’s getting to be about that season! For more info, please see here.

FIRES – Still quite a few fires burning right now, but thankfully this rain and cooler weather has been helping, with the largest fire (the Okanogan Complex) currently at 40% containment. For a map of the fire locations see here, and for details on the fires themselves see here.

As expected, the jet stream will shift south and bring in the large trough overnight. It will be making a slow transit, so we can expect the temperatures to stay cool and the rain to stick around for the most part. It kind of stalls on Wednesday, and will start to shrink and weaken on Thursday so we may see some showers for the game, but the weekend might turn out to be better. We’ll see how that goes on Thursday.

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A trough will move in, keeping things cool and kind of wet. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The low pressure to the north will weaken enough that it melds into the rest of the pressure over Vancouver Island. I don’t see much in the way of fronts, but the pressure will still stay on the low side so not much change in that. We may see a slight increase on Thursday as the system above starts to weaken, but not by much. I will be skipping this model.

There may be some scattered showers tonight, but most of it will stay in the Cascades. By Wednesday those showers will start to dry a little bit for much of the day. Northern Cascades will see a bit of an increase in amounts, but all of the rain will quickly start to dry out overnight to give us a little break. Thursday will start out mostly dry, with a small rain band moving in late morning, then spreading out in the afternoon. By the end of the forecast, the rain will have lessened and scattered a little, but it will still be hanging out over central Sound. The CAPE Model is showing a pretty decent chance at thunderstorms for both Wednesday and Thursday (with a better chance Wednesday night), but the temperatures might be too cool for convection to properly form. I will post the model, but I don’t think we’ll get too much in terms of thunderstorms. The foothills have a better chance.

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Scattered showers for the next couple of days, with most of it in the mountains. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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CAPE is showing potential for thunderstorms, but I’m still skeptical. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

Clouds will break for a bit overnight and into Wednesday morning, with scattered cloud cover hanging around. Clouds may start to increase later in the day. Thursday is looking to have more cloud cover throughout the day, but we will still see a few breaks as well.

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Mostly cloudy skies with a few breaks here and there, mainly on Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds are looking to fall back into the summer trend for at least Wednesday, with calmer winds in the morning and increasing in the afternoon. The winds will calm down again by the late evening hours, and will stay that way through most of Thursday.

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Winds will be breezy Wednesday afternoon/evening, then calm on Thursday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As mentioned, we will be on the cool side for the next couple of days, but remember: We’re just getting into September, so it’ll still be warm as well. If that makes sense. Wednesday will see highs in the mid 60s for the entire Sound, with some cooler pockets north and over Kitsap. Lows will dip down to the low to mid 50s, this time with cooler spots mainly over Kitsap. Thursday will see the same temperature ranges as Wednesday, just maybe one or two degrees cooler.

TL;DR: Cool and rainy. Bye bye Summer (for now)!

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08/30/15: It almost seems like we’re in the middle of autumn right now…

We usually don’t get windstorms like that until fall or winter. But conditions were just right for this time, and did it do it’s damage. The “Supermoon” Windstorm (because the supermoon occurred that night) brought down trees and debris on the interstate, took out power for much of the Sound (with some people still waiting for it to come back), and caused a fatality when a tree fell on a man’s car. Hopefully this will be it for the year.

Recap

Friday – High 76°F, Low 64°F; Scattered showers in the morning and evening, with mostly to partly cloudy skies throughout the day. Winds were on the variable side, with stronger speeds in the morning.

Saturday – High 75°F, Low 59°F; The day of the Supermoon Windstorm. The day started with rain that continued for much of the day for most of the Sound, with some areas getting more than others (basically north Sound due to the convergence zone). Then the winds started to pick up by mid morning and didn’t let up until the evening. Boeing Field saw their strongest gust at 39mph, while north Sound (specifically Everett) received a 60mph gust at one point. Sustained winds peaked at around 25-30mph.

Sunday – High 68°F; Kind of feels like a hot autumn day with all the leaves blown everywhere. Partly cloudy all day, with some scattered showers around the Sound. Winds are still on the breezy side, but not as bad as Saturday.

WARNINGS – Only 2 warnings to mention tonight: A Small Craft Advisory for all Sound waterways, and an Air Quality Alert for the other side of the Cascades. For more info, see here.

FIRES – Still quite a few fires out right now, but hopefully this rain will start helping some. There are too many for me to report on tonight, so for a map of the fire locations see here, and for details on the fires themselves see here.

Well, the trough has moved on, but we’ll still be right on that border of the warm more-stable air to the south and the cool less-stable air to the north. By the time Tuesday rolls around, a new trough will start to form and push it’s way out of the general mass of air. The new leading edge will slowly start to envelope us by midday, and will continue to push east by the end of the forecast.

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The jet stream will be parked over us for a bit, then shifting south as a new trough moves in. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

Not much in the way of fronts and the like, but the pressure will be lower than what we’ve been used to for the summer. At the end of the forecast, we see a low move south a little, but it looks a bit on the weak side so I’m not expecting too much from it right now. We’ll have a better idea of that on Tuesday, but for now I’ll at least post the model so you can see.

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Pressure will be slightly on the low side, with a low system moving in on Tuesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

The rain isn’t over yet, but the worst has definitely passed. Expect showers to increase overnight, with most of the rain staying in the mountains. Monday will see increasing showers in the afternoon/evening, drying out by the time you go to bed. The rain will once again stay in the mountains overnight, but by Tuesday morning it will move back down to to the lowlands and dry out by the end of the forecast. I’m not holding out a whole lot of hope for thunderstorms on this batch, but if there were to be any, it would be Tuesday afternoon in north Sound. I won’t post the model.

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Rain will be very predominant in the rain for the next couple of days, with scattered showers in the lowlands. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

Don’t expect too much in terms of direct sunlight for the next couple of days. With the pressure on the lower side, clouds will be sticking around for much of the day. Expect mostly cloudy skies for both Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday having a better chance at some clearing.

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Mostly cloudy skies, with a few sun breaks here and there. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Monday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will still be on the breezy side, but nothing like we saw on Saturday. Expect strong winds for much of Monday, mainly over the water but it will spread out overland as well. The winds will calm by the evening hours, and stay that way for the most part through Tuesday, with some slightly increased speeds.

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Windy conditions on Monday for the entire Sound, calming a little bit by Tuesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Temperatures will be on the cool side of warm for the foreseeable future, so at least there’s that. Monday will see highs in the mid to high 60s for the entire Sound, warming a little to the south. Lows will be in the high 50s. Tuesday will be the same for both highs and lows, but with a little more uniform high 60s for the highs.

TL;DR: Cool, not as windy, and kinda wet. Much better.

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08/27/15: I’m back!

And hopefully for the forseeable future! I may have to miss next Thursday for a Seahawks game, but I’ll see what I can do. Obviously I’ll be skipping the Recap.

WARNINGS – We have a few warnings out right now. First up we have a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Strait. Over the mountains and on the east side, we still have some Red Flag Warnings, as well as some Air Quality Alerts for the surrounding areas due to smoke. On our side, we have a Special Weather Statement for the entire area, basically warning about the quick change in weather coming up. For more info, please see here.

FIRES – There are just way too many fires to fit into this, including the very large complex in the Lake Chelan area (which is slowly but surely getting contained). For a map of the fire locations see here, and for details on the fires themselves see here.

Well, I’m sure you’ve been hearing about this mythical rain moving in. It will be a much needed change in both the fires and giving the area a good rinse. We can see where this rain will be coming from, with a large upper level trough that will merge with a isolated low as it moves into the area. The trough itself won’t be over us until Saturday, but it should be pushing in some rain ahead of it. Once it moves over land it looks like it picks up speed a little bit, but looking ahead to Sunday it will be sticking around for most of the day.

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An isolated low will combine with a large trough to bring in a fairly strong rain system. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

Pressure will start to drop on Friday, which will help bring in some cloud cover. We can see the makings of a low to the northwest off our screen, as well as an isolated low to the south, quickly moving up the California/Oregon coast. The low itself will combine with a front from the northern system, which will create quite the system, with some fairly strong winds associated with it as well. Most of it will pass through the area by Saturday evening, and looking ahead to Sunday it looks like everything calms a bit in terms of pressure.

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Pressure will start to drop on Friday, heralding in the coming system. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m Winds, and temp

Now the part I’m sure everyone is waiting on. The rain won’t waste any time in coming through, with a system moving in early Friday morning. It will be strongest from the commute into late morning, especially for north and south Sound. The rain will start to dry out by the evening hours, moving to a more scattered approach. But it will be a quick break, as the larger system moves in with the front/low combo. It will start around the same time, but will be much stronger, and this time for everyone. Areas in the lowlands can expect from half an inch to an inch in just 3 hours. The worst of it will be in the morning, lessening by the afternoon for some people. Notice I said lessening, not drying out. We can expect pretty consistent rain for the rest of the day. Looking ahead to Sunday, we’ll start of scattered with increasing rain in the afternoon. With the front/low combo, there will be a bit of CAPE moving in as well, so we may see some thunderstorms on Saturday as well.

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2 systems will move in, one on Friday, and a stronger one on Saturday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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There is a possibility of thunderstorms on Saturday, but with the temperature coming down, we’ll see how it goes. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

Friday will be cloudy all day, lessening some in the evening. Saturday has the potential for some sunbreaks, but will basically be overcast all day. All around, a cloudy weekend. We haven’t seen one of those in a while…

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Overcast skies for much of the weekend. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will be fairly calm for the lowlands on Friday, with stronger winds up in the mountains and over the water. Saturday will be a completely different story. We’ll stay relatively calm in the wee hours (except for the mountains), but the winds will quickly increase from the south. The strongest winds will be late morning/early afternoon, with sustained winds reaching 25kts (28mph) in central and south Sound. With strong winds, expect very strong gusts as well, some areas peaking at 45kts (51mph). Speeds will slowly…well, slow down throughout the rest of the day, with Sunday staying on the breezy side.

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Winds will be relatively calm on Friday, but be prepared for some very strong winds and gusts on Saturday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

If there’s a positive for this weekend, it’s that we’ll see some slightly cooler temperatures, which will be a nice break from the heat. Highs on Friday will reach into the mid to high 60s for the entire Sound. Lows will not be much cooler with the cloud cover, only dipping to the high 50s. Saturday will be about the same with both highs and lows.

TL;DR: Cool weekend with quite a bit of wind and rain moving in.

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Update: just need a little more time…

So my intended hiatus went a little longer than anticipated, due to work load, personal life/commitments, and all around not having a lot of time to so anything. It’s going to need to go a little longer unfortunately but for different reasons.

My office (in their infinite wisdom) uses IE as their browser of choice. And since they don’t update it regularly (and I’m not allowed to download another one), WordPress is no longer compatible.

Why does my work browser matter? Well, with my commuter life, I get most of my blog work done during my downtime. If I save the entire thing to when I get home, I’ll barely have time for dinner.

So there won’t be a post today, but I will get one in for Thusrday. I’ll just have to do what I used to do and bring my laptop to work.

In the meantime, it’s going to be hot and clear, but it looks like the weekend will be the opposite, so that’s something to look forward to.

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No post this week

Sorry everyone, but I’ll be super busy this week so I won’t be doing any posts.

Just know that it’s looking to get very warm again, especially for the first Seahawks preseason game. If you’re going to be there like I am, you should probably start hydrating starting Thursday.

I should be back next week for forecasts.

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08/06/15: That convergence zone got intense. Too bad it didn’t reach downtown…

…Because it smells funky down there. It looks like the models were a little off for the late afternoon/early evening showers, but north Sound and parts of north Seattle at least got a decent amount with the convergence zone.

Recap

Wednesday – High 75°F, Low 62°F; No showers reported at Boeing Field, so it sounds like it was a little more scattered than anticipated. Skies were mostly cloudy all day, with breezy conditions throughout the day.

Thursday – High 79°F; Scattered cloud cover throughout the day, with variable winds as well.

WARNINGS – At this point all we have is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Strait. For more info, please see here.

FIRESFire report current as of 10:41am. Looks like same amount of fires, just a few different ones. First up is the Blue Creek fire near Walla Walla. We’re almost there with 98% containment, 6,004 acres consumed, and 1 residence destroyed. Next is the Hwy 8 fire near Roosevelt. This is a new fire, and it spread pretty quick with 17,043 acres consumed and currently at 25% containment. Also a new fire, we have the Goode fire near Marblemount. This one has consumed 687 acres, with 0% contained. The last of the smaller incident fires is the North Boulder 2 fire near Orient. at 80% containment, it has consumed 233 acres. Moving up in levels we have the Baldy fire near Ione. With 507 acres consumed, it is now at 2% containment. Finally, we have the Wolverine fire near Lucerne. This one has been a roller coaster, with 25,640 acres consumed, and now at 0% containment. For a map of the fire locations see here, and for details on the fires themselves see here.

Well, the slight ridge that built over us today will be very short lived, as a new larger trough moves in. It’s a little on the slow side, but we’ll start to see changes Friday night as the leading edge gets closer to shore. The trough will stall a little bit on Saturday, but the jet stream will be positioned in a way that can still bring some showers in. We’ll see for sure below.

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A new trough will be moving in, bringing a few more showers. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

There’s definitely a bit of fluctuation in the surface pressure over the next couple of days, including a small low that pops up Friday night. It has an associated front that will attach itself to a stronger low up north, but it doesn’t look like it will hit us for this forecast. There’s a little movement at the end, but by that point there’s a lot of fluctuation with the front itself so it may weaken itself out of existence.

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Pressures will dance around, with a front forming off the coast. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

Friday will stay dry for the most part, with some showers moving in from the north during the evening hours. These showers will stay in the Olympics, and dry out overnight. As the upper level low gets closer to the coast on Saturday, we will see another system start to slowly roll in as it is pushed along the jet stream. The mountains will absorb most of it and scatter the rain as well, but we can still expected showers for most of the area Saturday night. The CAPE model is showing some nice blooms for thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday, but I don’t think there’s a big chance of actual development. I will post the model just so you can see at least.

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Showers will move in to the mountains, with the possibility of scattered showers in the lowlands on Saturday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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The model is showing thunderstorm potential, but I don’t have much hope. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

Skies will stay mostly clear for most of the day on Friday, with clouds moving in later in the evening. Saturday will see overcast skies to start out and will stay that way for most of the day. By the end of the forecast, we may see some clearing in areas, but not by much.

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Friday will stay fairly clear, with clouds moving in on Saturday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24hr precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24hr precipitation

Surprisingly, even with the system moving in, it looks like the winds will stick to the norm. Calm morning, breezy afternoon. The Strait will see strong winds Friday afternoon/evening, but it’s looking to stay relatively calm on Saturday.

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Winds will follow the calm morning breezy afternoon trend. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the clouds taking a break on Friday, we can expect warmer temperatures tomorrow than Saturday. Highs on Friday will be in the high 70s for the Sound, warming a little to the south. Lows will be in the high 50s. Saturday will see a little bit of a cool down, with highs in the low 70s, with a couple pockets of mid 70s. Lows will be in the high 50s once again.

TL;DR: More showers on the way, after a sunny end to the work week.

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