02/27/15: Missed the extra rain, but feeling pretty confident for the weekend.

Well, it looks like the convergence zone/low center decided to drop a bit more rain in a little bit of a larger area than expected this morning. Sometimes that happens with weather and models, so hopefully it wasn’t too much of a surprise for you this morning.

Recap

Thursday – High 55, Low 49; Scattered showers throughout the day, with mostly calm winds as well. Clouds were mostly cloudy to overcast.

Friday – High 54; More rain than expected, with amounts over 3/4 of an inch in places. Winds were fairly breezy all day, with overcast skies obviously.

WARNINGS – At this point, all we have is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the waterways, and the continued Special Weather Statement for the Cascades. For more info, please see here.

The short wave through that we saw moving in today has developed into an almost isolated upper level low, so the jet stream has a few extra bends in it. Because of this, as that low continues to rotate and move southeast, the jet stream will actually start to shift to the east as well. This will push some of the cooler air away, hopefully clearing the way for…well, a clear weekend. This trend will continue through most of the weekend, at least until Sunday afternoon. At that point, the jet stream starts to shift back to the west, bringing with it some more cool air and possibly some disturbances as well. By the end of the forecast a small short wave trough will start to move through, which backs up the disturbance theory.

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We’ll get a taste of a ridge over the weekend, but that will start to change by the end of it. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The low that brought in the rain Friday morning will continue to move south, so we can expect the pressure to come up a little bit. There are no high pressure centers on the map, but the weather will make it seem like it. I don’t see any frontal systems, so I will skip this model for this round.

The showers will dry out overnight, and by Saturday morning we should be seeing dryer weather. This will actually continue all through the weekend, so go do something outside while this lasts! Normally I wouldn’t post this model since it’s empty, but there is a system that will be moving in Sunday night. It will probably bring in some showers overnight, so because of that, I will post the model.

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Showers will dry out tonight, and stay that way for the weekend.SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Preicp; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

However, I won’t post the snow model since there won’t be any to report on. At least most of the mountains got a little bit more snow!

With the showers departing overnight, we can expect the clouds to do the same. And from there, I’m seeing mostly clear skies for much of the weekend. Some high clouds will move in overnight on Saturday, but that’s it until Sunday afternoon. Even then the clouds will be high, but we can still expect mostly cloudy skies by the end of the day.

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Mostly clear for most of the weekend, with some clouds moving in Sunday night.SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

With the low pressure still hanging close by overnight, we can expect some windy conditions to stick around given our natural wind tunnels. Fairly strong winds will blow tonight, mainly in the Strait, northern islands, south Sound, and the mountains. Central and north Sound will see some windy conditions as well, mainly over the water. These winds will slowly start to weaken through Saturday morning, leaving breezy conditions throughout the Sound. By Saturday night, we will have calmed some more, with slight breezes here and there, mainly over the water. This will continue through Sunday evening, where the incoming system will increase the winds over the waterways once again.

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Things are looking to be blustery tonight and for the first part of Saturday, then it should calm some for the rest of the weekend.SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surfac;e 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

We can expect similar temperatures during the day, but the lows are going to be a bit colder. Highs on Saturday will reach into the low to mid 50s for the entire Sound, with slight cooling in the north. With the lack of cloud cover, the lows will dip quite a bit, coming down to the low to mid 30s (yes you read that right). If you live close to large bodies of water, you may see slightly warmer temperatures, but they will cool real quick as you move inland. Sunday will be almost the same case since the clouds won’t move in until later. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s once agian, but warmer temperatures to the south. Lows will be in the high 30s to low 40s.

TL;DR: Back to the clear winter weather for the weekend: kind of warm during the day, pretty darn cold at night.

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02/25/15: Good thing I didn’t put my boarding gear away.

The rain is starting to move back in, which is nice because the nights will be a little warmer and there won’t be frost on my car in the morning!

Recap

Tuesday – High 55°F, Low 45°F; Increasing clouds later in the day. Winds were breezy in the morning, calming a little bit by the afternoon. No rain to speak of.

Wednesday – High 52°F; Scattered showers throughout the day with overcast skies. Winds were breezy all day as well.

WARNINGS – At this point, we have no watches or warnings for the immediate area. We do have a Special Weather Statement out for some of the mountain counties, but that’s it. For more info, please see here.

It looks like the jet stream will still keep the cool air over us, and it will still be bringing in some moisture as well. A short wave trough will come through overnight on Thursday, so that could bring in some more rain as well. As we progress through Friday, it looks like the jet stream will shift just enough to bring in some slightly cooler air, and start to bring the top portion of a ridge closer to shore. Hopefully that will start the process for a nice weekend.

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The jet stream will continue to bring in moisture, but will start to clear up by the weekend. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

A low pressure system associated with the short wave trough will move in overnight on Thursday. I don’t see too much in the way of frontal systems (yet), so I’m not expecting too much from this (we’ll see a little better in the precip/wind models). Although if you’re sensitive to pressure, at least be aware of that I guess.

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A low pressure system will move in on Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

As predicted in the last forecast, the showers will spread out tonight and will continue through Thursday morning. There will be a little bit of a convergence zone so central and north Sound may see a little extra rainfall. Most of the showers should dry out by the afternoon, with a few scattered showers here and there. As we progress into Thursday night, some more stronger showers will move in, mainly for the Olympics, Kitsap, and parts of south/central Sound. It looks like there is a small frontal system associated with the low pressure as it makes its transit overnight, but this system won’t affect us. At most, it will bring precipitation (either rain or snow) to the Olympics, and showers to south Sound and Kitsap. After that, the rain will dry out for the most part, with the exception of some scattered showers in the Cascades.

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Rain overnight, turning into scattered showers. The front on Friday will graze the south, but that’s about it. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

As I have been hinting at for the past few days, the mountains (specifically the ski slopes) will finally be getting a bit of snow. It should have started by the time I post this, and will continue through Thursday afternoon. By that time, the snow will be more scattered until it dries out by Thursday evening. The cold front moving in overnight on Thursday will bring a bit more snow to the mountains (including in the Olympics), but most of the snow will fall in the southern Cascades. This will dry out by morning, and other than a few scattered snow showers up north at the end of the forecast period, that’s it for this batch.

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The mountains will finally get a decent amount of snow! SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

As expected with the few systems moving in, we can expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies for much of the forecast. There may be some clearing Thursday afternoon/evening, but not too much since the clouds will just close in again with the low pressure. By late Friday morning, the cloud will finally clear up for the most part, but given that we’ll still be under some low pressure, I’m thinking partly cloudy skies.

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Mostly cloudy through most of the forecast, with some clearing towards the end. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of late Thursday afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of late Friday afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of late Friday afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

The wind will be about the same as the last forecast: calm for one part, windy for the other. We’ll have mostly calm winds through all of Thursday and overnight into Friday, but that will change by Friday morning. The winds will start to pick up first over the waterways, then start to expand over land. The strongest winds over the water will be up in the northern Islands, with Kitsap getting the brunt for the land.

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Winds will be calm for Thursday, increasing for Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the cool air mass still over us, we can expect much of the same temperatures. Thursday will see highs in the low 50s for much of the Sound, with slightly higher temperatures in south Sound. Lows will be in the low 40s, warming slightly closer to large bodies of water. Friday may see warmer temperatures depending on what the clouds do, with highs in the low to mid 50s for the Sound. North Sound may see warmer temperatures. Lows will be in the high 30s to low 40s, as the insulating layer of the clouds will be clearing out.

TL;DR: Rain, showers, and mountain snow up until Friday afternoon.

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02/23/15: We’re starting a last minute winter push.

Seems like we’re finally moving back to winter. A little last minute, but it loos like we’re making a last minute push before we get too far into the year. As a reminder (and for new folks reading), I have a page dedicated to the terminology I use in my post. You can take a look here.

Recap

Saturday – High 56°F, Low 35°F; No rain to speak of, with mostly cloudy skies in the morning. These cleared up by mid afternoon and stayed that way, hence the very cold low. Winds were breezy throughout most of the day, calming by the evening hours.

Sunday – High 55°F, Low 32°F; Boeing Field got some trace amounts in the early hours, but given that the skies were clear, I believe this was an issue with the rain gauge. Other than that, mostly clear skies throughout the day with calm winds, slightly picking up for just the afternoon.

Monday – High 57°F; Clear skies once again, with more variable winds throughout the day.

WARNINGS – At this point, we only have a Hazardous Weather Outlook in effect for Okanogan & Chelan Counties (this isn’t in the NWS Seattle boundaries, but it’s on the map, so I’ll mention it). It’s basically warning that there is more winter weather on the way, and people should prepare for it. So NWS Spokane isn’t quite ready to issue watches and warnings, just giving people a heads up. For more info, please see here.

As I hinted at above, we’re going to have some more winter-like weather over the next few days. The jet stream will start to move south a little, pulling some cool air down from the north. We won’t necessarily be in a trough, but the way the jet stream is positioned, we might as well be. This will continue overnight and into Tuesday. A small ridge will start to build and move east by Tuesday afternoon, but it will weaken quite a bit by the time it reaches our area Wednesday morning. By the end of the forecast we’ll be further into the cold air mass from Canada, and with the jet stream dancing around a bit, it looks like it will settle over us at that point. So we can expect some weather to move in.

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The jet stream will be doing a little bit of a dance, but cool air will be dominant. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The high pressure that has been giving us this clear weather will have a new neighbor to deal with in the near future. A low pressure system will move in from the northwest, and even though it’s small, it will still start the motion of pushing the high pressure away. I don’t see any major fronts moving in, but there will be just enough disturbance to create some clouds and a little precipitation once it gets closer Tuesday evening. From there, the picture will basically be the same through the end of the forecast period, with the high pressure moving further away.

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Low pressure will try to move in, but doesn’t quite make it. However, it will push the high pressure further from the coast. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

Even though the low pressure will be fairly weak, it will still bring in just enough disturbance to bring in some scattered showers. The coast will get the most Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, but the foothills of the Cascades will see some showers as well. These showers will dry out by mid morning (except for the coast), but this was just a warm up. By the end of the forecast, the beginning of a larger system will move in. We’ll talk about it more on Wednesday since this is past the forecast period, but expect a bit of rain to start off the last leg of the week.

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Tuesday will be mostly dry with scattered showers overnight. A larger system will make its presence known right at the end of the forecast. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

The snow model is pulling up a blank until right after the forecast period, so I won’t be posting it. But I do want to say: if you are a skier or snowboarder (or any other snow-activities), and you’ve been putting off going up to the slopes because of the weather, don’t put your gear away yet. There will be a last minute push for snow over the next week or so, so conditions will be improving. I for one am definitely going to try to get up one more time this year, you should too!

With the drop in pressure moving in, we can expect the clouds to start moving in as well. We will start to see increased cloud cover overnight tonight, but it won’t be too bad right away. There should still be a bit of sun Tuesday afternoon, so enjoy it while you can. More clouds will develop overnight into Wednesday, and these will be thicker and lower than Tuesday. Expect cloudy skies for the rest of Wednesday.

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Partly cloudy skies for Tuesday, with clouds increasing overnight as the new disturbance moves in. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals for Wednesday. Since there isn’t anything for Tuesday, it doesn’t make sense to post that.

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24hr precipitation totals as of late Wednesday afternoon. This is before the large system moves in, so the model isn’t registering that. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour preicpitation

The wind is looking a little varied for the next couple of days, mainly windy on Tuesday and calm on Wednesday. Since most of the pressure change will be occurring on Tuesday, we can expect fairly strong winds. Winds will start to increase by mid morning, mainly for all areas except for the immediate area around the Sound. The calm wind areas will be central and north Sound (sorry south Sound). Strongest winds will be up in the Strait and in the Cascades. These strong winds will slowly start to calm down overnight, with the Cascades taking a little longer. Winds will be calm in the lowlands and breezy up in the Cascades for the rest of Wednesday.

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Fairly calm for the lowlands, with strong winds in the Cascades and northern waterways Tuesday afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Temperatures are going to be fairly similar to what we’ve been seeing, with the lows a little warmer. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s for the Sound, with warmer temperatures to the south. South Sound could see high 50s, but we’ll see how that goes. Lows will be in the high 30s to low 40s. Wednesday will see a more uniform high, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows will be warmer with the increase in cloud cover (remember, acting as an insulation layer), with lows in the low 40s.

TL;DR: It’ll feel the same, but clouds will be moving in, heralding some rain later in the week.

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02/20/15: Did you put your flowers out yet? May want to rethink that

Well that was a nice break from the early spring, wasn’t it? Is the cool weather going to last, or are we going to start prepping for spring again? Well…both actually.

Recap

Thursday – High 54°F, Low 50°F; Scattered showers throughout the area, with heaviest rain in the afternoon/evening. Mostly cloudy all day, with winds on the breezy side in the morning.

Friday – High 54°F; Scattered showers once again, but not as strong as Thursday. Winds were quite a bit calmer as well. Mostly cloudy all day, with the clouds starting to clear by the end of the day.

WARNINGS – No watches or warnings at this point.

The jet stream is going to start doing a little dance over the weekend. Part of it will bow out to the west, which will bring in some cool air. But we’re more on the ridge side of the jet stream, so that may keep some of the rain away. We’ll start to move more into a cool ridge as we progress through Sunday with the jet stream bulge moving south. It looks like we’ll start next week on the nice side, but there is a fairly large short wave trough I’ll be keeping an eye on out over the Pacific, which you can see start to possibly develop into an isolated low by the end of the forecast.

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A ridge will help keep the weather away, but we’ll still be under cool air. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

With us being on the ridge side of the jet stream, there will be some high pressure on our side as well. This will help keep the rain and clouds away (we’ll see if that holds out later in the post), but the air will still be a little on the moist side, and temperatures are still going to be cool. You should remember what this gives us, but we’ll talk about that later. Since there isn’t too much on this model, I will skip it.

With the high pressure dominating around us, I see no rain in our weekend future. A few showers will brush through the eastern slopes of the Cascades, but that’s about it. Those showers will at least be snow, but that won’t help the resorts. At least they got a decent dusting with the last system. I will at least post the precipitation model so you can see that, but I will skip the snow model and the totals.

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Not much in the way of precipitation, with the exception of a few snow showers in the Cascades. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

Skies will be mostly cloudy overnight, but those should start to clear by Saturday morning. From there, we’ll have mostly clear skies through the night. Now for the bit of foreshadowing from before. Given that we’ll still be on the cool side, we can expect some morning fog this weekend, specifically Saturday night/Sunday morning. This should clear up by mid morning, clearing the way for sunny skies.

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Clouds will start to clear overnight, and other than some morning fog on Sunday, we’ll have a bit of sunshine. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

It looks like the high pressure will be lining up just right to create some strong winds in the area. We should see winds start to pick up early Saturday morning, and will continue to gather strength throughout the day. Areas with the strongest winds will be the mountains, Salish Sea/northern Islands, and over the Sound and Kitsap. The winds will start to calm slightly by the evening, with stronger winds shifting to south Sound. South Sound will continue to see windy conditions through the end of the forecast, with the Cascades in the same boat.

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Areas will see quite a bit of wind over the weekend, especially the Cascades. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Temperatures will still be on the unseasonably warm side, but they will be a little cooler. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 50s for much of the Sound, with warm pockets mainly in north and central Sound. Lows will dip all the way down to the mid to high 30s, so hopefully you don’t have sensitive plants out yet! Sunday will see slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the mid 50s for central and south Sound (with a pocket of warmer temperatures in the highlands), and cooler temperatures to the north. Lows will dip down to the mid to high 30s once again, with colder pockets to the south.

TL;DR: Sunny but cool weekend ahead!

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02/18/15: And the weather roller coaster continues

The unseasonably warm sunny weather will take a little vacation for the next few days, so back to our almost normally scheduled winter-transitioning to spring weather!

Recap

Tuesday – High 61°F, Low 38°F; Definitely broke a few records for the high, and clear skies let the low dip almost to freezing. Skies were mostly clear throughout the day, with breezy conditions mainly in the afternoon.

Wednesday – High 57°F; Increasing skies throughout the day, with fairly windy conditions.

WARNINGS – At this point, we have no watches or warnings.

Since the jet stream moved south, some cooler air will be moving south as well, and the jet stream will bring through some disturbances, which we know means weather. By Thursday afternoon, a ridge over the Pacific continues to build, which could cause the jet stream to bring down some colder temperatures. The ridge will continue to build through Friday, and it will try to start moving east, but the jet stream just doesn’t want to budge over the west coast.

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We’ll be stuck under the jet stream for a few days, but a new ridge is starting to build which could move in over the weekend. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

Not much going on in the sea level pressure model. We have some high pressure off the Oregon coast that will help keep some of the weather away, but not completely. I don’t see any frontal systems, so I will skip this model.

There is definitely going to be some more rain in this forecast. Showers will continue overnight up in the mountains, and by late Thursday morning more will move in. Like last time, the Olympics will take the brunt of it, but the system will basically rebuild itself as it lifts up the Cascades. This will cause more rain to fall in the lowlands, mainly in central Sound to start. By late evening Thursday, north Sound will have a strong cell move through, but it will be quick as it moves to the Cascades. Precipitation will continue in the Cascades overnight (we’ll see if it’s finally snow in a bit), and by mid morning Friday, some of those showers will move into the lowlands (this will be rain). Those showers will start to weaken for central Sound as the afternoon progresses, and then shift to south Sound by the end of the forecast period.

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A new system will move in Thursday afternoon, and will stick around through the end of the forecast. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

As the cold air moves in from the north, the temperatures in the mountains will finally be cool enough for snow! It will start early morning Thursday, mainly staying in north Cascades, then spreading further south by the evening. Amounts will increase briefly overnight, and then slowly start to weaken by the end of the forecast period. This will more than likely help out all of the resorts with the exception of Snoqualmie, but the summer is still looking rough in terms of water…

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The mountains will finally be getting some snow! SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

As expected with the new system moving in, we can expect cloud cover to increase as it already is. Thursday will be cloudy and overcast all day, with the slight possibility of some breaks on the Olympics side of the Sound. Friday will be mostly cloudy with breaks throughout the Sound, but don’t expect too much sunshine. The clouds will start to clear up later in the evening, so at least there’s that.

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Mostly cloudy to overcast skies for much of the forecast, with skies starting to clear by Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of late afternoon Thursday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of late afternoon Friday. Most of the precipitation in the mountains will be snow. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of late afternoon Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Winds will be mostly on the calm side throughout the Sound, with a couple exceptions. South Sound will see some increased winds Thursday evening, mainly over the water. North Sound and the Strait will have increased winds overnight Thursday and into Friday morning, again mainly over the water. And the Cascades will see breezy to windy conditions throughout the forecast.

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Winds will be mostly calm for the next couple of days, with some patches of stronger winds thrown in. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

We will be cooler over the next couple of days than we were recently, moving more towards our normal temperatures but still on the warm side of normal. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 50s, with a warm patch in south Sound. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s with the cloud cover keeping in some of the radiated head from the ground. Friday will definitely be on the cooler side, with highs in the low 50s for everyone, south Sound once again having slightly warmer temperatures. Overnight lows will be cooler as well since the clouds will be clearing, with lows in the low 40s, cooling as you get further from large bodies of water.

TL;DR: Back to winter-like weather for a couple days.

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02/16/15: Took a quick birthday break, now back to the weather!

Had family plans that ran all day on Friday, so I wasn’t able to post anything. Doesn’t look like we missed anything major, just some nice weekend weather!

Since I missed the last forecast, I will skip the Recap.

WARNINGS – At this point, we have no watches or warnings.

It looks like since I lasted looked, the warm-weather ridge has increased in size and strength. If you like the spring-like weather, enjoy it while it lasts, because the ridge will slowly start to weaken as we progress through the forecast. By Tuesday evening, the jet stream and cooler air will have finally made its way down to our area, so we can expect some weather to move in around this time. The ridge will fully vacate by Wednesday morning, so we should start to move back to our normal winter weather, just a little warmer than we usually have. For now at least…

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The ridge giving us the sunny weather will start to weaken on Tuesday, making way for the jet stream and another batch of wet weather. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

I don’t see any frontal systems moving in with the decreasing pressure, but I do see a high pressure system start to build again to the south by late Wednesday. We’ll see how that plays out on the next forecast, but in the meantime, I will skip this model.

The skies are looking relatively dry for all of Tuesday and part of Wednesday. The next round of showers will move in starting Wednesday morning, but won’t make it to the Sound at all really. The Olympics will take the brunt of it, creating a large rain shadow encompassing central Sound and parts of north and south Sound. South Sound will have scattered showers in the evening, while north Sound will see less scattered, more consistent showers as well. Those showers look to be north of Everett. The Cascades will get some action as well, but unfortunately the temperatures will be too warm for snow, as the snow model is drawing a blank. The precipitation we see in the model will in fact be rain.

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Dry on Tuesday, scattered showers on Wednesday. I’m not sure why the scale is only showing up on a few of the images, could be an issue on UW’s side. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

Cloud cover on Tuesday will be mostly on the clear side. We’ll have some scattered cloud cover here and there, but it will be pretty high up so it won’t affect us too much. Wednesday will start out mostly clear, but as the new system moves in, we can expect increasing clouds throughout the day. I don’t think it will be 100% overcast, but it will definitely be mostly cloudy for much of the day.

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Not much in the way of cloud cover until Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

I won’t be posting the 24hr precipitation totals for 2 reasons: no precipitation on Tuesday, and since most of the precipitation that will affect the lowlands will occur after the cutoff of the model (4pm), it won’t show any information useful to us.

The winds will stay on the breezy side overnight and for the first half of Tuesday. The stronger winds will be over the water and up in the mountains. By the afternoon, these winds will start to calm, but then pick right back up Wednesday morning. The wind speeds should be about the same, but some areas will see stronger winds, mianly over the water and Kitsap. By the afternoon, things will slowly start to wind back down.

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Breezy conditions for the next few days, mainly up in the mountains and over the water. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

We will start to see a cooling trend over the next few days, and that should stick for the foreseeable future as well. Tuesday will be the last really warm day, with highs in the high 50s for the entire Sound, with some warmer pockets in south Sound and the foothills. Lows will be in the low 40s. Wednesday will see the start of the cooling trend, with highs in the low to mid 50s for much of the Sound, with a warm pocket in the Hood Canal area. Lows will once again be in the low 40s.

TL;DR: Tuesday will be spring, Wednesday will start moving back to winter.

 

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02/11/15: Enjoy it while it lasts, folks.

It looks like the weather will stay like this for a little while longer, but it’ll be changing in the near future. Note: Just a heads up, I may not have time to do a post for Friday. I’ll do my best, but no guarantees.

Recap

Tuesday – High 57°F, Low 44°F;  Scattered showers in the morning, drying up about half way through the commute for some. Skies were mostly cloudy up until later in the evening, where they started to clear out a bit (this helped the low drop as much as it did). Winds were fairly strong in the morning and afternoon, gusting as high as 22mph.

Wednesday – High 57°F; Dense fog in areas during the morning commute. This burned off by mid morning, and from there the skies have been trying to clear, but it’s been partly to mostly cloudy skies for much of the day. No rain to speak of, and the winds were definitely on the calm side as well.

WARNINGS – At this point we have no warnings to speak of.

The ridge that built over us will start its inevitable move to the east starting overnight tonight, but it will be very slow going. We’ll move to slightly cooler air on Thursday, and Friday will see some cooler air once again. There is a short wave trough moving into the area by Friday night, so we can expect some weather Friday evening. We’ll see exactly what that is in a bit.

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The ridge will move on its way, with a short wave trough moving in on Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The high pressure will stick around all through Thursday, but some low pressure will start to move in by Friday morning. There could be a weak cold front on its way Friday night, but since it’s at the end of the forecast we’ll have to see how that plays out.

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The pressure will start to drop some over the next couple of days, with a cold front moving in on Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

Some showers will move in overnight tonight and into Thursday morning. The strongest parts will be up in the mountains and on the coast. For the Sound, we’ll just see light showers starting mid morning and going until late evening. This will only affect central and north Sound, with the strongest showers occurring mid morning in the Seattle/Bainbridge/Bremerton area. The showers will dry out overnight, and we’ll stay that way until the very end of the forecast. By that point, the weak cold front will be close to making landfall, and it will be pushing some precipitation ahead of it. At the end of the forecast, only the Olympics, northern islands, extreme north Sound, and parts of Kitsap will be affected, but as you can see, there’s quite a bit more on the way. It should be quick, but we’ll see on Friday.

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Scattered showers for the lowlands on Thursday, with more rain in the mountains. Friday is looking pretty dry. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

No snow in the forecast for this round. The east slopes of the northern Cascades may get some flurries, but that’s about it. Any precipitation in the mountains will more than likely be rain, or possibly a mix. I won’t be posting the snow models.

Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast from tonight into Tuesday evening. Once the showers dry out, the skies will part a little bit for some partly cloudy skies. But that will only be for Thursday night, as some more high clouds will move in on Friday. The ceiling will come down as the front moves in, so we can probably expect overcast skies for much of Friday.

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Mostly cloudy to overcast skies for most of the forecast period. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of late Thursday afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of late Friday afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will be on the calm side for the most part. The winds up in Hood Canal and areas of north Sound will see some breezy conditions Thursday evening, but they won’t be very strong. Friday looks to be the exact same scenario, except the Cascades will have some windy conditions mainly in the afternoon.

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Fairly calm winds for the lowlands, with winds picking up for the Cascades on Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Even with the ridge moving on, the temperatures will still be on the warm side over the next couple of days. The cool down won’t occur until this weekend. Thursday will see highs in the high 50s for much of the Sound, with pockets of warmer temperatures mainly in central and north Sound. Lows will be in the high 40s for the east side of the Sound, with temperatures warming as you move into the foothills. The west side of the Sound will see cooler temperatures, especially the southern part. Friday will definitely see some higher temperatures, with highs more than likely in the low 60s, with some possibly higher temperatures throughout the Sound, especially in the foothills. Lows will be in the mid 40s as the cold front moves in.

TL;DR: Scattered showers, mainly on Thursday, with cloud skies and warm temperatures.

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