04/27/15: Hottest day of the year! Will it last?

Fairly decent weekend. Partly cloudy skies both days but they tried to clear out for the most part by the afternoon. Hopefully you enjoyed it while it lasted…

Recap

Saturday – High 58°F, Low 42°F; Very few scattered showers here an there in the morning, but other than that, partly cloudy skies all day with breezy conditions in the morning and afternoon.

Sunday – High 62°F, Low 54°F; No showers this day, once again with partly cloudy skies. Winds were pretty breezy throughout the day.

Monday – High 78°F; Quite a bit warmer today, with breezy conditions and partly cloudy skies all day. A few trace showers in the morning, but that’s about it.

WARNINGS – At this point, we only have a Small Craft Advisory for all waterways. For more into, please see here.

The ridge that has built over us over the weekend will start to move east overnight, giving way to a sharp turn in the jet stream. The jet stream will proceed to park over us and spread out a little, bringing in cooler air as well. A small spur for the trough will cross over us overnight on Tuesday, where it could act as a small wave trough and bring in some rain, but we’ll see how that plays out. As we progress through the rest of the forecast, the cooler air to the north will try to move over us, but it won’t quite make it (although it will be cooler that day).

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The jet stream will swing a trough in, cooling things down a little bit. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

A very well defined front will swing in overnight and make landfall by Tuesday morning. That’s really the only thing to note from this model. It looks like there may be a weak front or two on Wednesday from a small pressure center (remember the small spur?) that is trying to be a big boy system but doesn’t quite have it all together.

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A fairly strong cold front will move in Tuesday morning, with a possibly weak front on Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

We’ll stay dry overnight, but the cold front will bring in some showers for Tuesday. There doesn’t seem to be too much in the way of prefrontal precipitation, so we won’t really see anything until late morning/early afternoon. The Olympics will act as a barrier, provided a rain shadow to Kitsap and parts of central Sound, but no one else. Other than the mountains, hardest hit will be north Sound as there will be a little bit of a convergence zone forming. Most of the showers will dry out by Wednesday morning, and we’ll stay that way for most of Wednesday with a few scattered showers. By the end of the forecast another system will move in, bu the interior will be mostly spared from this one. The mountains will definitely get some, with some areas of north Sound getting some showers as well. Neither system shows potential for thunderstorms.

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2 systems will move in, with the strongest on Tuesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

Both systems will bring in some light snow to both ranges, but not a whole lot. I won’t post the model, but I will include the 48hr totals below.

Clouds will be increasing overnight as the cold front moves in. The front is actually very well defined on the model, so that’s pretty neat. Once the front hits the Cascades it will stall and keep the clouds around. Some areas may see some clearing in the evening, mainly for south Sound. As the front finally pushes over the mountains, we’ll get a brief clearing overnight, but more clouds will be moving in from the coast. As the model is showing this next batch as fairly low (see them skirting the Olympics?), there may be some fog thrown in there for good measure. Or they could just be low clouds. Regardless, they’ll move in for the morning, and from there we’ll see mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.

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Expect mostly cloudy skies for the next couple of days, with some breaks thrown in for good measure. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

The winds will be on the variable side for the next couple of days. We’ll see winds start to pick up overnight, peaking by mid morning. Areas with the strongest winds will be over the water, Kitsap, and north Sound. We’ll see the winds start to calm as we progress through Tuesday, with the exception of the Strait and Kitsap. By the evening hours the interior will finally calm down, with the Strait still blowing around. We’ll stay this way until Wednesday afternoon where the winds will start to pick up for the entire Sound (especially Kitsap), but the winds won’t be as strong as Tuesday. Winds will start to calm again by the end of the forecast.

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Winds will be breezy for Tuesday, and kind of breezy for Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the cold front moving in, expect cooler temperatures for the start of the week. Highs on Tuesday will reach into the mid 50s for central and north Sound, with temperatures reaching close to 60 down south. Lows will be in the high 40s for north and central Sound, cooling as you move south and over Kitsap. Wednesday will be slightly warmer, with highs in the high 50s to low 60s for the entire Sound.

TL;DR: Cool and wet on Tuesday, kind of cool and not so wet on Wednesday.

 

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04/24/15: Weekday showers bring weekend showers?

Off and on showers brought an end to the week, with some thunderstorms here and there as well. What’s in store for this weekend?

Recap

Thursday – High 55°F, Low 45°F; Partly to mostly cloudy all day, with increasing showers towards the afternoon. Winds were pretty breezy all day as well.

Friday – High 57°F; Scattered showers throughout the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds were quite a bit stronger as well, with strong gusts for most of the day.

WARNINGS – Not much for land, but basically all waterways have a Small Craft Advisory in effect. For more into, please see here.

The cold air mass will be sticking around for a little bit longer at least. It’s rotation will continue to swing it over the area, but it will also start to weaken as well. By Saturday night it will just be a shadow of its former self, finally dissipating overnight. We’ll start off Sunday with a slight ridge to replace the low, but this ridge will move on very quickly and may not have as much time to clear things out.

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The cold air mass will dissipate, while a small ridge will quickly move in and quickly move out. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The sea level pressure looks to be a mess for the most part. Varied pressure on Saturday as the upper level low starts to weaken, finally starting to show some semblance of order by Sunday. As the pressure gets organized, it looks like a warm front forms and starts to swing into the area on Sunday. This should bring in some showers, but it should also warm things up. We’ll see how that goes in a bit.

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Once the pressures start to get organized, we will have a warm front push in on Sunday. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

Showers will start to dry out overnight, and we should stay relatively dry for most of Saturday. As we move into the afternoon, showers will start to develop in the mountains, and those will start to drift down into the lowlands towards the evening hours, mainly for Kitsap. These showers will dry out overnight as well, and from there we won’t see anything until Sunday night. The showers won’t hit until after the forecast, but looking ahead it looks like we’ll have some scattered showers overnight. There is a little potential for thunderstorms Saturday in the Olympics, but I wouldn’t write home about it. I won’t be posting the CAPE model as I don’t think the storms are very likely.

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Scattered showers through the weekend mainly in the mountains, drying out a bit by Sunday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

With the cold air mass leaving, the snow showers up in the mountains will be moving to rain/snow mix. I will not be posting this model either since there isn’t really anything on it.

The skies will have some varied cover over the weekend. We’ll have some clearing Saturday morning with some scattered cloud cover mainly on the west side of the Sound. Well see more of an overall clearing overnight, but with the warm front moving in, we’ll see some high cloud cover move in as well Sunday morning. There may be some clearing in the afternoon, but for the most part the ceiling will start to drop as the front gets closer.

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Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with a few breaks overnight. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

The winds look to follow the same trend we’ve been seeing, but in a weaker state. We’ll stay on the calm side overnight, with the winds starting to pick up in the afternoon. Breezy conditions for most of the Sound, with the strongest winds down in the southern reaches of the Sound and up in the Strait. These will calm again overnight (except for the Strait), then we’ll see the winds pick up again in the afternoon. This time the breezier conditions will stick to Kitsap.

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Winds will be variable like it has been, but not as strong. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the cold air mass weakening, we can expect a little bit of a warm up this weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in the high 50s for the entire Sound. Lows will be in the low 40s for most of the Sound, with cooler spots up north and over Kitsap. Sunday will see warmer temperatures, with highs in the low 60s for the entire Sound, possibly reaching into the mid 60s in areas. Lows will be in the low 50s.

TL;DR: Scattered showers at times with partly cloudy skies, but it’s warming up again!

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04/22/15: This is a nice break from the warm weather, isn’t it?

I missed the last post because I was super busy. If you’re reading this, I was able to make time to do it for this round!

I will be skipping the Recap.

WARNINGS – At this point, we have a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Strait and northern waterways. For more info, please see here.

The small ridge that built over us to clear things up a little on Wednesday will weaken and move on, giving way to a large isolated low. The low itself will take a while to reach us, but it will be pushing some unstable air ahead of it, more than likely in the form of a front (we’ll see for sure below). The cool center of the low will only graze us for this forecast on Friday, but it will settle in more after the forecast period ends.

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A isolated low will bring in some precipitation and cold air. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temp, winds, heights

As I was expecting, a frontal system associated with the leading edge of the upper level low will roll in Thursday morning/afternoon. Once it makes landfall it will distort a little bit, but the rain will still be with it. After that its associated surface low will start to move south a little bit, weakening as it moves. By the end of the forecast it will be parked over Vancouver Island in a weaker state, but it will still be around to affect the weather.

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A front will sweep in on Thursday, bringing in the rain. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

We’ll stay dry overnight, but the pre-frontal rain bands will move in right as the commute is starting. Luckily the Olympics will take the brunt of it, so we should stay relatively dry to start out, with a few scattered showers here and there. Once we move into the afternoon, the system finally makes the push over the mountains, and we’ll see some increased rain. North Sound will stay relatively dry, with amounts increasing as you move south. South Sound and Kitsap will see the strongest bands, with the exception of the Cascades. Most of this will dry out as we move overnight into Friday, but the front will leave behind some unstable air so we can expect showers to build again by commute time. Olympics and Cascades will take the brunt of it, but the entire Sound will see some rain all day, especially in the early afternoon. The CAPE model is showing a little bit of thunderstorm possibility for Friday afternoon, mainly over Kitsap and the foothills. I think it will still be a little too cool for convection to start up, but there is a decent chance for thunderstorms.

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Showers both days, with Kitsap getting the brunt of it. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

 

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We will have some thunderstorm potential on Friday, but not too much. I think it will be too cool, but we’ll see how it plays out. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

The cold air mass moving in will keep the temperatures cool enough for snow to fall in the mountains. The snow will start up late Thursday morning, and will continue from there until the end of the forecast. Friday may see some strong convergence zone snowfall in both ranges, but both days will see some strong points.

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The mountains will be getting some decent snowfall over the weekend. Too bad the resorts are shutting down. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

Cloud cover will increase from it’s partly cloudy state overnight, and will continue that way through the end of the day. We’ll see some clearing in between systems, but the clouds will just close right back in by Friday morning. Once we hit the afternoon/evening hours, we may see some partial clearing in areas, bu there won’t be too much.

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Mostly cloudy to overcast skies for the next couple of days. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24hr precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24hr precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

The winds will basically follow the trend we’ve been seeing over the past couple of days. We’ll see it start to pick up by mid morning, especially up in the northern Sound and islands. By the afternoon the entire Sound will see breezy conditions, mainly to the north and in the waterways. Winds will start to calm overnight, and then we’ll start the process again, this time a little earlier in the morning. For Friday, the strong winds will actually be all over the Sound, so no one will be escaping it that day. And following the trend, the winds will calm by the evening hours.

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Breezy during the day, calming overnight. Rinse and repeat. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the cold air mass moving in from the north, we can definitely expect cool temperatures. Thursday will see highs in the mid 50s for the entire Sound, with a few warmer patches by Hood Canal. Lows will be in the mid 40s. Friday will see similar temperatures (if not slightly higher), with a warmer pocket in north Sound. Lows will dip back down to the mid 40s, with cool spots in south Sound and Kitsap.

TL;DR: Cool, rainy, and breezy for the next couple of days.

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Quick update

Hey everyone,

Just wanted to give you a quick update on the status of Husky Weather.

As I’m sure you’ve noticed, I have missed a couple posts lately, which is fairly rare unless I’m on vacation (like I was a couple weeks ago).

Work has been pretty busy for me, and that’s where I get a good chunk of the forecast work done in my downtime since I have a kinda longish commute (I basically get home and have a few hours before going to bed to start over).

I just recently joined a local drumline (I’m not going to Say who in case I can’t, but thEy Are a big deal. I’m Hoping to stAy With them a while and Keep the druming and Support up), and that has been taking up a bit of my time trying to learn new music.

And to top it all off, I’ve been training for a Tough Mudder event, so workouts are taking time as well.

With all this said: I don’t do the forecasts for money or anything like that, I do it to provide (hopefully) accurate forecasts that are easier to understand while still being technical enough to maybe teach people about the weather. But my job and other commitments are creeping up on me. I will do what I can, and I don’t anticipate missing any more forecasts, but we’ll have to see how it goes for a little bit.

TL;DR: I’m super busy lately and I may miss some forecasts. Sorry!

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04/17/15: Nice weekend maybe?

(Forgot to do the pictures, so just text for this batch)

We’ll have to see how it goes, but so far it’s looking good. Although there have been the rumors of reaching the 70s…

Recap

Thursday – High 65°F, Low 45°F; Mostly clear skies for much of the day, with windy conditions in the afternoon. Gusts were up to 18mph at one point, but sustained winds were fairly calm in the morning and evening.

Friday – High 68°F; A few clouds in the morning, clearing up once again by early afternoon. Winds picked up again in the afternoon as well.

WARNINGS – At this point, we only have a Gale Warning for the Strait. This will expire tonight, but they may release a Small Craft Advisory for the weekend. For more info, please see here.

A new ridge is starting to build, and it will start to move over us overnight. By Saturday it will reach it’s peak strength, and then plateau from there. We will be graced with its presence at least through Sunday afternoon, where after that it looks to start moving south a little bit. Overall, I’m liking how this weekend looks so far.

Associated with this ridge will be a high pressure system with some decent strength. The center will stay off the coast, but it will definitely help keep things clear on our end. the only thing that concerns me a little is the way the isobars (lines of constant pressure) are lining up with us. I don’t expect any wind storms, but we may be breezy at times. We’ll see how that goes down below.

With the high pressure off the coast, expect dry skies as well. The high pressure will be keeping the convection at bay as well, so I’m not expecting any surprise thunderstorms.

As with most of our high pressure systems, we can expect pretty clear skies, with some light cloud cover/patchy fog in the morning. Sunday may see a little more cloud cover during the afternoon, but they will be way high up and very few, so I’m not concerned.

The winds will be breezy at times over the weekend as I was expecting, but it won’t be anything we can’t handle. We’ll see them start to pick up by early afternoon, mainly for the mountains and over the water. These areas will stay windy until the sun sets, where it will calm down expect for up in the Strait. We’ll continue to calm overnight, and then the winds will start to pick up again by early afternoon. It’ll be exactly like Saturday though, with the winds starting to calm by sunset once again.

Expect a fairly warm weekend, so try to get out there and enjoy some sun! Saturday will have highs in the mid to high 60s for the entire Sound, cooling slightly as you get closer to the water. Lows will be pretty cool (as expected with clear skies), dipping down into the high 40s. Sunday will see warmer temperatures, with highs climbing pretty close to the 70s, especially for Kitsap and south Sound. Lows will be in the high 40s once again, with a few places possibly hitting 50.

TL;DR: Nice weekend!

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04/15/15: Back with the weather!

Hi everyone! Sorry again for not posting on Monday. I wasn’t feeling well and there were some things I needed to catch up on that took precedence. Since I haven’t posted in a while I will be skipping the recap.

WARNINGS – All we have at this point is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Strait. For more info, please see here.

It looks like a small ridge is starting to build over us, which has helped clear out most of the showers. It won’t really strengthen or weaken, but it looks like it will shift south a little bit on Friday. Given that the jet stream will still be to the north, and the air will still be on the warm side, I don’t think it will affect the weather other than maybe a few extra clouds. We’ll see how that goes below.

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A small ridge will help keep the pressure high over the next couple of days. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

High pressure will be dominant over the next couple of days. A small and weak low pressure center looks to swing something our way Thursday night, but it will stay on its track north of Vancouver Island, and will actually be overtaken by some high pressure.

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High pressure will keep the weather nice over the next couple of days. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

If you like the rain we’ve been seeing for the past couple of days (and some of it was pretty heavy), hopefully you enjoyed it while it lasted. With high pressure moving in, we’ll be staying dry for the next couple of days. The CAPE is drawing a blank as well, so I won’t be posting the precipitation, CAPE, or snow models, as there isn’t anything on them!

Cloud cover will be pretty sparse for the most part. We’ll have some mostly cloudy skies Thursday morning with a chance of some fog in areas, but that will start to burn off as we approach the afternoon. Expect mostly clear skies for the afternoon and evening, but the clouds and fog will move back in Friday morning, and we’ll just repeat the process again, although this time we may have a few more clouds in the afternoon.

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Mostly clear skies with some patchy fog in the mornings. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

There isn’t too much in the way of clashing pressures, so we shouldn’t see any strong winds over the next couple of days, but we will see some breezy conditions at times. Thursday will start out pretty calm for the Sound, but once we hit early afternoon we will see winds start to pick up. It will start over the water and along the coastline, then spread out mainly to the north. Winds will be strongest up in the Strait for a brief time in the early evening, then everything will start to calm again as we move into the later hours. Friday will start out the same, but by early afternoon we will see increased winds all across the board, especially in the mountains and around the Hood Canal area. By the end of the forecast things will have started to calm down, and will continue to do so overnight.

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Winds will be mostly calm in the morning, picking up by early afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As I’m sure you’re expecting through all of this, we can expect a warm up over the next few days, but maybe not as high as the weather folks on TV are saying. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60s for south and central Sound, cooling slightly to the north and closer to the water. Lows overnight will be in the mid to high 40s, cooler in the north and over Kitsap. Friday will actually see about the same temperatures in the same areas as Thursday, with lows staying about the same as well.

TL;DR: Nice couple of days ahead of us!

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04/13/15

Hi everyone,

I know I said I would do a post today, but some things came up over the past week, and I need today to catch up on said things. That, and I’m not feeling 100% right now, probably caught something from the plane.

From what I’ve been hearing, we’re going to have rainy conditions for the next couple of days, clearing up some by Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs in the low to mid 50s, with a warming trend starting on Wednesday.

I’ll be back on Wednesday with a full forecast.

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