04/18/14: Rain jacket for the Spring Game, no jacket for the Easter egg hunt

Well, we got quite a bit of rain, as expected, with a few extra sun breaks as well.

 

Recap

Thursday – High 58°F, Low 44°F; Rain for much of the day, about half an inch in some places, and more in others. The most intense period was at the end of it around 8 or 9pm (depending on where you live), where Boeing Field got a whopping 0.29in of rain in just one hour. Winds were breezy and gusty all day.

Friday – High 59°F; No rain today, with mostly to partly cloudy skies. Winds continued to be fairly breezy, with a few gusts here and there.

 

WARNINGS – It looks like NWS extended the Flood Warning until next Thursday. Other then that, we definitely have some Small Craft Advisories in effect right now for all wateways, and there may be some increased wind warnings tomorrow, possibly a Gale Warning. For more info, please see here.

 

We will start of in a fairly small ridge, which will start to transition into a trough, so we can expect a new system moving into the area as Saturday progresses. The brunt of that will pass by Sunday, where we will get an even smaller ridge, but that may give us a break. There’s always another side to the coin however, because there is a very large trough that will probably make landfall sometime early next week, but we’ll see how that goes on Monday.

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A small ridge will make way for a small-ish trough on Saturday. On Sunday things wil level out a little, but a larger trough will be on it’s way. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

It looks like another front will move into the area on Saturday, around noon (so right before the Husky Spring Game), but it doesn’t look like it’ll be dropping the temperatures. Things will start to clear up again on Sunday, but a cold front stalls off of the coast, so that may move in next week.

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A cold front will move into the area on Saturday, bringing in more rain. Another front tries to move in on Sunday, but stalls off of the coast. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

Rain will stay clear overnight, but as the front moves in tomorrow around noon, we can expect more rain to move in as well. Things will start to clear up a little bit in the evening, moving to scattered showers, slowly moving to no showers overnight. There will still be some precipitation in the mountains, mainly in the Olympics, but the lowlands look fairly clear. There is a little bit of a plume on the CAPE model Saturday evening, so I won’t be ruling out the chance for a thunderstorm or two in the lowlands, but with how the thunderstorms have been acting lately (or lack of thunderstorms really), I don’t hold out too much hope.

Cloud cover will stay partly cloudy until the front moves in, when clouds will obviously increase. The clouds lessen very quickly though, giving us more party cloudy skies starting Saturday evening. We’ll see an increase again as the second front tries to move in on Sunday, but there shouldn’t be too much rain associated with it in the lowlands at least.

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Rain will move in Saturday around noon, but will turn scattered towards the evening. By Sunday things wil clear up some. UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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The only chance for thunderstorms will be on Saturday in the evening, mainly in the foothills. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy

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Clouds will increase with the front, but should start to lessen some by Sunday to a more partly cloudy situation. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

There will be some snow associated with the front since it’s still cold enough in the mountains, but I’ve been seeing the areas affected starting to fall lately. I feel like by our next warm up, we’ll see a significant decrease in snow. But since it’s still popping up, I’ll still post it. The hardest hit will be the northern Cascades since there will be a convergence zone forming in that area Saturday evening. Everything will weaken by Sunday morning to the point where there will be only a couple small showers here and there.

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Snow will mainly come from the front, with the hardest hit areas in the Olympics and north Cascades on Saturday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snow totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Winds will increase as they usually do when a front moves in. The hardest hit will be the usual places: all waterways and the mountains. But the lowlands will definitely get their share, mainly in the evening, and we can expect some gusty conditions as well. By Sunday morning, the lowlands will have calmed a bit, but the waterways will still see some higher winds, mainly north of Kitsap. By the end of the forecast, all areas should be relatively calm.

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Winds will increase on Saturday as the front moves in, with the strongets winds in the waterways and mountains. Things should calm down some by Sunday, with the waterways taking a little longer to calm. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

We can expect temperatures to be about the same as it has been. Saturday will see highs in the mid to high 50s, and actually climbing as you get into the Cascade foothills. This may help with the possibility of thunderstorms, but we’ll see. Lows will be in the mid 40s. Sunday will see highs in the high 50s, with a good chance to hit 60, and an even better chance at getting above 60 if you’re in the south Sound, mainly from Seattle south. Lows will be in the high 40s.

 

TL;DR: Rain jacket tomorrow, light jacket Sunday

 

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04/16/14: Oh Seattle spring, where the skies are gray, the leaves are green, and the tree pollen is abundant

Well the weather stabbed me in the back yesterday. Didn’t actually start raining until late evening. At least I wasn’t the only one to get it wrong. NWS and some of the local news channels had about the same predictions at the time of posting. Oh well, water under the bridge.

 

Recap

Tuesday – High 61°F, Low 50°F; Mostly cloudy all day, with breezy conditions all day and a few strong gusts here and there. The rain didn’t start until late evening, and even then it was a fairly small amount.

Wednesday – High 52°F; Windy and gusty all day, with rain starting up early morning and not really stopping from there.

 

WARNINGS – We still have the Flood Warning upstream of the debris dam up north. The actual warning says it will be expiring at 4:45pm on Thursday, so we’ll see how that goes. Other than that, we have a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the majority of the waterways. It says they will be expiring tonight, but with the weather system moving in I anticipate they will have a new one tomorrow. For more info, please see here.

 

The small ridge that built over us will depart overnight, giving way to a larger trough that should be over us by Thursday afternoon/evening. Although it doesn’t look like the very cold air will be over us, so we won’t have to worry about too much of a cool down, if any. However, as with all troughs, we can expect more rain to move in. And since this trough looks a little stronger than the last, I expect the weather to cooperate this time.

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The ridge that is over us will quickly depart, making way for a larger trough that will bring in more weather. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

One reason why I’m expecting the rain to actually do what the models say it’s going to do is that there is a fairly large cold front associated with this trough. It looks like the actual timing of the front has it making landfall late night Thursday, but it will be pushing ahead some rain as well. By Friday afternoon things will start to clear up as the trough departs and a high pressure system moves in from the south.

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A cold front will move into the area Thursday evening, but it will be pushing a lot of moisutre ahead of it. After that a high pressure system will swoop in from the south to help clear things up a little. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

The model is showing a significant increase of rain overnight and into Thursday, so that front is definitely pushing some moisture ahead of it. Things will start to calm a little through Thursday evening, but keep in mind the front hasn’t even made landfall yet. The rain will give one last push in the wee hours of Friday as the front makes landfall, but the Olympics take the brunt of it. After that, things will turn to scattered showers for Friday, with a convergence zone forming in the Seattle area in the afternoon/evening, mainly in the foothills/Cascades. This is a little south of where the Puget Sound Convergence Zone occurs, so we’ll have to see how this one plays out. Throughout all of this it looks like there’s a rain shadow forming on the northeast slopes on the Olympics, but by the end they will still get a little bit of rain. I don’t think it’s going to get warm enough for thunderstorms to occur, even in the convergence zone. The CAPE model agrees with me, no plumes of pink anywhere.

Snow will increase some on Thursday, but not by much. This means that most of the precipitation you see in the precipitation model over the mountains will actually be rain, or possibly a mix as you get to the higher elevations. That story changes late Thursday as the cold front moves in and drops temperatures in the mountains, where we will have a bit of an increase in snow, mainly in the north and central Cascades. That will clear out rather quickly though.

Cloud cover will stay pretty dominate until Thursday evening after the front moves through. After that, things will try to clear up, and succeeds for the most part. I’m thinking party cloudy on Friday, with some good chances of sun breaks. But keep in mind there is still the convergence zone that should happen later that day, so still remember your rain jacket.

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As mentioned above, the cold front will be pushing a lot of moisture ahead of it, and we’ll see that start overnight tonight. After the front passes late Thursday/early Friday, things will clear up, but a convergence zone will form in the foothills/Cascades. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

 

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Snow will be somewhat light on Thursday, but will increase through the day as the moisture moves in. The strongest point will be late evening Thursday in the north/central Cascades. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

 

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Cloud cover will be pretty overcast until late Thursday/early Friday after the front moves in. after that, things will be party cloudy, with some increasing clouds Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud, Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. As you can see, we can expect quite a bit of rain. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Most of Thursday will see winds like what we had the past couple of days: breezy, with increased winds over the waterways. Once the front moves in late Thursday night, we can expect a significant increase in wind speed all around the board. The hardest hit will be the Strait and northern Islands, so be prepared for strong gusts up there, followed closely by the mountains (mainly the passes). Even though these areas are going to be hit the hardest, expects gusts everywhere. Things will start to calm again as the day progresses, but it’ll take a while for the Strait and mountains to wind down.

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Winds will stay breezy, increasing as the front moves through. After that, things will slowly start to calm down. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Thursday will still hit some warm temperatures since the front will be hitting later in the evening. I expect highs in the mid 50s for the Sound, possibly getting up to the high 50s as well. Lows will be in the mid to high 40s, getting warmer as you get closer to water. Friday will actually see slightly warmer temperatures since things will be clearing up. I expect high 50s for the Sound, with a decent chance of a few 60s here and there. Lows will be in the mid 40s.

 

TL;DR: A lot more rain on the way, but Friday may turn out to be a nice break.

 

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04/14/04: Better buckle up your seatbelt…I mean rain jacket.

Hopefully you enjoyed the past few spring days, because it looks like we’re moving back to rain for a little bit.

 

Recap

Saturday – High 62°F, Low 43°F; Started out cloudy in the morning, clearing up a bit by afternoon/evening. Wind picked up quite a bit in the afternoon but only for a few hours.

Sunday – High 70°F, Low 42°F; Clear all day, with a few breezes in the afternoon.

Monday – High 70°F; Started clear and calm, but as the day progressed winds started to pick up and clouds started to move in.

 

 

WARNINGS – The Flood Warning is still in effect immediately upstream of the debris damn. NWS actually has a date for when it will end (meaning they predict when the flood will cease), which is the 17th, so we’ll see if that holds true. There are some Wind Advisories out right now but should end by Tuesday morning. For more info, please see here.

 

The trough mentioned in the last post isn’t as pronounced as anticipated, but it still has a somewhat deep core that will influence our weather, even though it won’t be going over us. At first it looks like the core is going to miss us, but then starts to slide down from Canada Tuesday morning. This will bring in some unstable air so we can expect some storms to roll through. A small ridge will build up and move into the area Wednesday, but another strong ridge will swoop in right after it. More on that Wednesday.

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A small trough will bring in some rain, and will be replaced by a small ridge on Wednesday. However, there is a larger trough moving in right behind that ridge. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

I’m not really seeing any sort of significant frontal activity, so I am going to skip the sea level pressure map.

The showers will start overnight, then the brunt of the system will move in Tuesday morning/afternoon. This will be mostly showers, with a convergence system building up later in the day. Wednesday will see some more showers move in, with some areas getting more than others. It looks like there’s a chance some of the showers in the convergence zone on Tuesday will develop into thunderstorms. I don’t think it’s a very good chance, but there’s still a chance.

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Mostly showers over the next couple of days, with the showers on Wednesday slightly stronger. A convergence zone forms Tuesday afternoon/evening, which has the potential for thunderstorms. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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We have a potential for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening, mainly in the western Cascade foothills. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

It looks like the mountains will still be getting some snow action with this system, but not much. The hardest hit will be the North Cascades on Tuesday, and the very southern Cascades.

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Seems like it’s still cold enough in the mountains for snow. Hardest hit places will be the north Cascades on Tuesday, and the south Cascades on Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

Cloud cover will increase some overnight (sorry if you had plans for the lunar eclipse, but we may not get a good view), and by Tuesday morning we can expect mostly cloudy conditions, which is obvious with the rain showers moving in. The clouds won’t really let up on Wednesday, they will actually increase a bit with the new system. I don’t see any signs of the clouds letting up after Wednesday, but we’ll see how that goes.

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Expect mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and even more clouds on Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud, Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. We can see the beginning of the Convergence zone over the Cascades. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Winds will continue to stay fairly breezy on Tuesday, but at least it looks like the mountains and the northern islands/Strait will get a little bit of a break from what they have been getting. Wednesday will see an overall calming of winds for just about everyone.

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Winds will be breezy on Tuesday, but should calm down some by Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

We won’t see temperatures as warm as what we saw this weekend, but it’s still getting to the point where one can consider turning off their heat for good, if they haven’t done so already. Highs on Tuesday will reach mid 50s for most of the Sound, with areas of north Kitsap climbing a little higher. Lows will be in the mid 40s. Wednesday will actually see warmer temperatures, with highs in the high 50s for just about everyone. Lows will be in the mid 40s again.

 

TL;DR: At least the rain will wash away some of the pollen?

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04/11/14: Sunny weekend, but maybe not next week

We had some clouds over the past couple days along with some variable but mostly calm winds, so all in all we had some pretty decent days.

 

Recap

Thursday – High 60°F, Low 42°F; Mostly sunny with breezy conditions in the afternoon. That’s about it.

Friday – High 64°F; Basically the same as Thursday, just a little warmer.

 

The ridge that started building over the past couple of days will continue to move slowly towards the coast. It will finally start to make landfall overnight Saturday and into Sunday, making way for some pretty nice days on Sunday and Monday. I will warn you though, with the build up of this sharp ridge, generally a sharp trough will follow, and it looks like we’re on track for that. More on the timing of that on Monday.

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The sharp ridge will start to move to our area overnight Saturday, but there is a sharp trough right behind it… SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

Another high pressure system will move into the area over the weekend, which will help clear up some of the cloud cover. Since all we have is the high and no fronts or the like, I will skip the sea level pressure map.

The showers will wrap up up north and in the mountains overnight and a little into Saturday morning, but after that with the high pressure moving in, we can expect a dry weekend. Obviously with nothing on the precipitation map, I don’t see anything on the snow or CAPE models, so I won’t be posting any precipitation, snow, or CAPE models.

Cloud cover will stay slightly increased overnight, but by Saturday morning things will start to clear up, and by Saturday evening, we’ll have clear skies. I will still post the cloud model at least since the post is starting to seem a little empty.

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Cloud cover will be fairly clear for the weekend starting mid morning Saturday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Wind speeds will calm a little bit by Saturday morning, but not by much since they will just increase again in the evening, mainly over the waterways and in the mountains. It looks like they won’t calm down by Sunday, and through the weekend things will be a little sporadic on wind speed in areas.

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Wind will be somewhat breezy through the weekend, especially in the mountains and waterways. SOURCE:

With the high pressure moving in and pushing away the clouds, we can expect some better temperatures this weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 60s with some pockets of mid 60s here and there. Lows overnight will be in the mid to high 40s. Sunday will be a bit warmer, with the entire Sound at least hitting mid 60s, probably average into the high 60s. South Sound and the Seattle metro area has a very good chance of getting closer to 70 than the rest of the Sound. Lows overnight will be in the mid to high 40s.

 

TL;DR: The first real nice weekend is ahead of us, with some breezes here and there.

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04/09/14: I was able to go to work without a jacket on!

Well it seemed I was slightly off on the timing of the rain, but there was definitely the amount we were expecting. Thankfully it looks like that’s the last of the rain for a while, but we’ll see how that goes.

Recap

Tuesday – High 63°F, Low 45°F; It was partly cloudy for most of the day until the rain moved in, obviously increasing cloud cover. The rain moved in mid to late afternoon depending on where you live, gave us a little break in the evening, this started up again late evening. All in all it looks like some areas got almost as much as 0.4in in that time frame. Winds were fairly strong all day, but as soon as the majority of the system passed, things calmed down quite a bit.

Wednesday – High 59°F; Things were a little more cloudy today than yesterday. Winds were a lot calmer today as well.

 

WARNINGS – We still have the Flood Warning in effect up north, upstream of the debris dam. For more info, please see here.

 

It looks like the jet stream has flattened out above us, which will help bring in some cloud cover, but it doesn’t look like there’s any troughs or short wave troughs moving into the area that could bring some rain. It actually looks like the jet stream will push north a little on Thursday, and then late night Thursday/early morning Friday, a ridge starts to build to the west of us. This ridge will start to move towards our area Friday, but it’s fairly slow moving, so we’ll have to see when it will hit us on the Friday forecast.

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The jet stream is lying pretty flat above us right now, bringing in some cloud cover. On Friday a ridge will start to build to the west but is slow moving. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

 

As expected with no troughs moving into the area, I don’t see any sort of warm or cold fronts on the sea level pressure map either. There is high pressure centered to the southwest of us over the Pacific, which is helping keep the cloud cover down some. Other then some isobars (the lines measuring pressure) being fairly close together over the mountains at times (a good indicator of increased winds), there isn’t much on this map worth showing, so I will be skipping it. We can go over the wind part later.

It doesn’t look like there is really anything on the precipitation map either. The only thing I see is a decent amount of rain occuring in north Sound on Friday, mainly in the morning/afternoon. There are also some small showers in the north Cascades around that time too. Since that’s all there is on the precipitation map, I won’t be posting the gif version of it, but it looks like the rain will be captured by the 24hr total map (remember, those end at 5pm as opposed to 8pm for the gifs), so I’ll at least post that. Just be aware it looks like the timing will be in the afternoon.

There’s a few little snow shower that will be up in north Cascades (and I mean NORTH) late morning Friday. We’re getting closer to the point where I won’t need to post the snow model, but I’ll keep looking at it for at least a couple more weeks until it’s obvious the snow has stopped for the season. I won’t be posting it today due to the small amounts.

The previously mentioned high pressure system will do a fairly good job at keeping most of the clouds away. We can expect a mostly sunny day on Thursday at least. The high pressure will start to weaken some by Thursday night, so more clouds will start to make their way in overnight. Because of this I’m thinking we’ll see some mostly cloudy skies on Friday, but there will still be a few sun breaks in there as well.

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Skies will be mostly sunny on Thursday, but cloud cover will increase overnight to the point where there will be fewer sun breaks on Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

 

As mentioned above, here is the 24hr precipitation totals for Friday. Keep in mind the timing for this will be late morning/noon, weakening in the evening.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. The timing of these totals will mainly be late morning/early afternoon, but I will just be posting this as opposed to the full gif. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

 

Winds are already fairly calm over land, but with less resistance over water those speeds are fairly breezy. The winds will start to calm overnight and into Thursday, but will increase again Thursday evening, mainly over the Strait, and in the Cascades later. Things don’t really seem to calm after that, with the lowlands getting some slightly stronger breezes as well on Friday, while winds over the water and in the mountains will increase more.

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Winds will be fairly calm until Friday. Winds will be stronger over the Strait and in the Cascades. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

 

It’s looking like both days will have a pretty good chance of hitting 60, or at least getting close to it. Thursday will see highs in the mid to high 60s for north Sound and most of Kitsap, while from Seattle south we will see high 50s, possibly even a 60 here and there. Lows overnight will be in the mid to high 40s. Friday will see more widespread warm temperatures. Sadly north Sound will still be the cooler area, but I expect them to reach high 50s. Once again from Seattle south (and including all of Kitsap this time) we will see the warmer temperatures, with high 50s and a pretty good chance of low 60s as well (notice I didn’t say we will hit 60, but low 60s, so surpass 60). South Sound (Tacoma/Olympia area) actually have a pretty good chance of getting closer to 65. Lows overnight will be the same as Thursday.

 

TL;DR: No rain, some clouds, and decent temperatures.

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04/07/14: One more day of rain for now

After all of the rain, at least we got some sunshine, right?

 

Recap

Saturday – High 56°F, Low 49°F; This is where we saw all of the rain, most of it in the morning and evening. The winds stayed fairly breezy as well.

Sunday – High 60°F, Low 52°F; No rain this day, just lots of clouds. The winds also started to calm down through the day as well.

Monday – High 72°F; By far the nicest day we’ve had all year. Mostly calm winds with a breeze here and there, with mostly sunny skies.

 

WARNINGS – The only warning we have out right now is the Flood Warning up north upstream of the debris dam. For more info, see here.

 

We will start to move into another trough overnight, which will bring in some more instability. It’s very quick though, because it looks like things will start to flatten out for us soon after. We’ll still have some cooler air over us so things may not get as nice as Monday, but after Tuesday we should see more of a break.

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We will have a small trough move through the area on Tuesday. After that, things will “flatten out,” keeping rain away, but not some cooler air. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb Temps, winds, heights

I don’t see too much info on the sea level pressure map, so I will be skipping that one today.

A very brief band of showers moves in Tuesday morning, and when I say brief, I mean brief (in weather terms at least). Things should dry out again by Tuesday evening, and it doesn’t pick up strength until it reaches the Cascades where uplifting can occur. It will leave behind some showers overnight, but things should be dry again by Wednesday evening. Even with the uplift tomorrow, I don’t anticipate any thunderstorms.

There is very little snow on the model for this round, so I will be skipping it as well. I will at least let you know the north Cascades will see the most snow, but that will be at the very high elevations.

Cloud cover will increase overnight with the approach of the rain, but things will turn to scattered clouds by Wednesday morning. It won’t be anything like we saw Monday, but we’re on our way.

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A brief system will move into the area Tuesday, and may leave behind some showers overnight, but things should be dry again by Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Some clouds will move in with the rain system, and after that there will still be some clouds, but there will be a decent amount of sun as well. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr totals as of Tuesday evening. Western mountain slopes will see higher amounts due to uplifting. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals. I’m posting this so you at least have an idea of the minimal snow we’ll be getting.

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48hr snowfall as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Winds will increase as the storm moves in, as usual. And even more as usual, we can expect the strongest in the mountains and waterways. Things will start to calm overnight, but the Cascades will take a little bit longer to calm down since they will be the last hit. Winds will start to increase again slightly Wednesday evening, but not as much as we would see Tuesday.

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Winds will increase with the rain system moving in, but should calm again by Wednesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As nice as today was, we will see another cool down, but it looks like we’re on the upward trend out of winter. Highs on Tuesday will actually be hit fairly early, with highs for most everyone in the high 50s to low 60s. Areas in south Sound may see higher temperatures. Lows will be in the mid 40s. Wednesday will see high sin the high 50s for everyone, with a smaller chance of higher temperatures in the south Sound, mainly in the Olympia area. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

TL;DR: It was nice, but the rain will be back for another day.

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04/04/14: Things are starting to change…

Seems like I was mostly on the money yesterday, but Friday’s weather didn’t seem to want to cooperate with what I said. Oh well, it is what it is.

 

Recap

Thursday – High 59°F, Low 44°F; Rain moved in in the afternoon, and didn’t last as long as I anticipated. Even though it was quick, it still dropped a decent amount, dropping around 0.12in in that one little spurt. Winds definitely picked up as well, as expected.

Friday – High 58°F; It looks like a couple places saw some showers, but it was a bit drier than anticipated. Winds were still fairly breezy all day, which actually brought the wind chill down a little bit.

 

WARNINGS – The only thing I see is the Flood Warning up by the slide area upstream of the river. The backed up pool of water is definitely not as bad as it has been, but it’s still there. One thing to keep in mind is with the rainfall moving in, we can expect that level to come back up a little bit, and areas that had just recently drained may see some flooding again. This warning will occur until the pool has completely receeded. More info can be found here.

 

It looks like we’re starting the transition to move into a ridge in the next few days, but before we get to that, we still have to go through a little bit of unstable air. The trailing edge of this trough will bring in more rain, and should wrap up Sunday evening after the ridge has some time to build up strength.

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We will be in a transiton between a trough and ridge for the weekend, but the ridge will be building strength to clear things out Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

 

There doesn’t seem to be much of anything to note on the sea level pressure map, so I will be skipping that model this time.

Showers will dwindle a little bit over night, then increase again towards Saturday afternoon as a new system moves in. The brunt of this system will hit in the evening, and it looks like it will be quick just like the last one. By Sunday morning things will have weakened significantly, to the point where there will be just a few scattered showers in the evening. The CAPE model, the one that gives an idea of the potential for thunderstorms, is showing a lot of nothing today, so don’t expect thunderstorms this weekend.

It seems like the snow is finally heading out the door. The only significant snowfall I see is when we have our increase rain in the lowlands, but even then it seems to be restricted to the higher elevations of the Cascades. Granted, those higher elevations will be getting quite a bit of snow, but the other areas will end up getting rain. The snow will dry out by Saturday morning, and stay clear at least through the end of the forecast period.

Cloud cover will increase Saturday morning with the system moving in, and when I say increase, I mean it will definitely increase. Things will try to start clearing up through the day Sunday, but the struggle continues even past the forecast period.

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A new system will move in Saturday evening, and will be a quick hitter like the last one. Things on Sunday will move to showers, and then start to dry out completely. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

 

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The snow will mainly stay in the higher elevations of the Cascades, with the significant even happening with the system moving in on Saturday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

 

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Cloud cover will increase Saturday, and then struggle to clear up on Sunday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

 

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as off Saturday evening. Quite a bit of rain all at once, and even more overnight. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. Most of this is from overnight Saturday starting after 5pm. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

 

And here are the 48hr snow totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

 

Winds will increase some when the new system rolls in, with the strongest winds in the usual places (the Olympics and the Strait, then later in the Cascades). But after the brunt of the system rolls through, winds will calm fairly quickly again to just breezy conditions, with slightly stronger winds over the waterways.

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Winds will increase with the new system moving in, with the usual areas seeing high winds (mountains, waterways). Things will start to calm down by Sunday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

 

As mentioned at the beginning, we will start to transition into some better weather after this weekend with a ridge building strength, and that is a little more evident in the temperatures. Highs on Saturday will get into the mid 50s for the Sound, same as we’ve been seeing. There is a chance for higher temperatures in some areas, mainly south Sound and the northern parts of the Olympic Peninsula. Lows overnight will be in the mid to high 40s. Highs on Sunday will see the increase, getting into the high 50s for everyone, maybe even getting closer to 60. Lows will be in the high 40s.

TL;DR: Just have to get through this weekend, then it’s back to nicer weather!

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