07/25/14: Are the torches going to go out for Torchlight Parade?

Looks like we’re finally moving back to summer after that brief rain break. How long will it last this time?

Recap

Thursday – High 69°F, Low 57°F; Showers mainly in the morning with a few scattered showers in the afternoon. Winds were breezy for most of the day, calming down by the evening. Mostly cloudy all day as well, with a couple sun breaks.

Wednesday – High 75°F; The morning started out a little cloudy, but things cleared up in the afternoon. Winds were a little breezy as well.

 

WARNINGS – There are actually no warnings out right now.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 9:31am 7/25. The rain has helped out significantly, but there’s still some work to be done. There are currently 4 fires we’re keeping track on in Washington. One has been around for a bit, but I haven’t touched on it since it isn’t as high of a danger as the others. The Lone Mountain fire is nearby Stehekin, and is only just over 2.5 square miles. It is 0% contained, but it seems like the firefighters have a decent handle on it with fuel reduction work. Now for the 3 major fires. Mills Canyon is now 95% contained, and the fire behavior is reported to be minimal. The Chiwaukum Complex is now 25% contained. A large section of Highway 2 is still closed, and they’re still watching out for flooding since there have been reports of debris flows in the Entiat Drainage. Finally, there’s the Carlton fires, which are now 55% contained, a huge improvement since Wednesday. Evacuations are still in effect, but some have been reduced or lifted, and power crews are now working on getting new power lines up. For a map, see here, and for more details, see here.

 

It looks like the jet stream will continue to slowly trek north again, bringing warmer air as well. A ridge will start to build Saturday evening, which should warm things up even more.

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Warmer air will start to move back in as the jet stream moves north. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

No frontal system in the sea level pressure model, or any systems really. Just some slightly increasing pressure that will help clear things up. This model won’t be posted this week.

The majority of the weekend will be dry, save for the Olympics. They will get scattered showers overnight and tomorrow evening as well. Sunday looks to be completely dry, and I see no potential for thunderstorms. There is a little bloom of CAPE on Sunday, but it doesn’t look like there’s enough moisture for storms.

Saturday will start out cloudy in the morning, mainly near the water. As the day progresses, there will be some scattered clouds mainly over Kitsap and the Olympics. That will all clear up late night, and by the time Sunday rolls around, we can expect clear skies.

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Dry weekend for everyone except the Olympics. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Saturday will start out partly cloudy, but after that things will start to shift to clear skies again. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Since Sunday will be dry for the most part, I will only post the 24hr precipitation totals for Saturday.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

We’re going to go back to our usual wind routine, but with a little bit more of a change through the day. Things will be calm overnight and into the morning, but as the day progresses the winds will pick up. It’s looking like the wind will have decent speed near the coast and over the waterways, so expect breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening hours.

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Winds will move back to what we’ve seen all summer, but with a twist: the afternoon winds will be slightly stronger. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

The warm up will continue over the weekend as we move closer to the temperatures we were seeing a couple weeks ago. Saturday will see highs in the mid to high 70s, with lows in the high 50s. Sunday will see warmer temperatures, with the majority of the Sound breaking into the low 80s. Lows will be the same as Saturday.

TL;DR: Remember a couple weeks ago? Yea. That’s what it’ll be. Oh, and the parade will have great weather.

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07/23/14: How about that thunder?

The rain definitely came in force this morning, and thundering earlier than anticipated. NWS Seattle reported on their Facebook page that at one point, there were 236 lightning strikes in one hour. Yes, you read correctly. It’s much needed rain since we haven’t really had any to speak of lately, and it will definitely help out with the fires (for the most part…see below). How long will it last?

Recap

Tuesday – High 73°F, Low 60°F; Scattered showers throughout the day, mostly trace amounts or a little more. Mostly cloudy all day with few sun breaks, winds were fairly calm as well with a few little breezes here and there.

Wednesday – High 66°F; Definitely cooler today with lots of rain and thunder. Winds were pretty breezy as well throughout the day.

 

WARNINGS – As of right now, the only thing out is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waterways in the Sound area for winds. For more info, please see here.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 10:42am 7/23. Hopefully all of this rain we got today and will get tomorrow will help with the fires, but that same rain can have the potential to cause mudslides and flash floods near some of the recent burn scars. Still have the same 3 fires that are causing problems as of this morning (before all of the rain this morning). First off, the Mills Canyon fire is 90% contained, so this one is all but wrapped up. Fire crews are now currently under, in their own words, “mop-up” operations. The Chiwaukum Complex is still going strong unfortunately, and is currently at 10% containment. Near Chiwaukum, it has consumed around 19 square miles, and road closures are still in effect, the biggest closure being Highway 2. And the worst of the 3 it seems, the Carlton fires are currently at 16% contained. All levels of evacuation are still in effect and continue to expand, with the fire consuming just over 391 square miles. For a map of the fires, see here, and for detailed information, see here.

 

Even though that upper level low took its time to finally make its way over us, it wastes no time in its departure. It’ll be out of our area by Thursday morning, and a concerning spur from another low actually weakens to the point where it won’t hit us. So after this point, it looks like things will start to clear up again. It was nice to have the rain and all (and there may some more on the way), but at least it won’t be getting as warm as it did before (hopefully).

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The upper level low will move on it’s way by tomorrow, and after that it looks like we’ll be in the clear of rain and cold temperatures for the most part. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

No frontal systems in the near future, and it looks like a little high pressure will be moving in as well.  The low pressure center that moved in with the rain will continue to create some rotation through tomorrow, which will affect the rain and wind, as you’ll see in a bit. With the lack of info, the sea level pressure map won’t be posted today.

As I hinted to above, we have another batch of rain in the immediate future. It will clear up somewhat overnight, and it actually looks like this is part of the same system, but it’s rotation is whipping around the rain again. The rain will come back in full force by commute time tomorrow, but just as quickly as it moves in, it moves right back out. The mountains and parts of north Sound will have rain all day, but everything should weaken by the evening to scattered showers. By Friday, things will be mostly dry with evening rain in the Olympics, and one or two scattered showers in the Interior, mainly to the north. The CAPE model is looking pretty clear, so it looks like we’ll be skipping the morning thunderstorms for this round.

We’ll start Thursday overcast, but with the quick departure of the rain, we can expect a quick departure of the clouds as well (for the most part). Scattered cloud cover in the afternoon for most of the Sound, it should clear up for the most part by evening. Friday will start out mostly cloudy as well, but will clear up for the afternoon. The Olympics and surrounding areas will have partly to mostly cloudy skies for the day.

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The system that dumped all the rain and lightning/thunder will rotate back around with more rain and less thunder. After that, things will start to clear up again. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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We will continue to be mostly cloudy to overcast through Thursday morning, but after that things will start to clear up. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. Most of this will be in the morning. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will continue to be windy overnight and into the morning, and will stay that way after the rain departs. Strongest winds on Thursday will be up in the Strait and northern Islands, eastern slopes of the Olympics, Cascades, and Kitsap. Things will start to calm down overnight, then pick up some by the afternoon/evening. These winds won’t be nearly as strong as what we’ll see on Thursday.

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Winds will continue to be windy through Thursday night. After that, things will calm quite a bit. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Thursday will be a cool day with all of the clouds keeping the sunshine out, but things will start to warm up again after that. We’ll see Thursday highs in the high 60s for the majority of the Sound with a couple hot spots, mainly in central Sound and Kitsap. Lows will be in the mid 50s. Friday will see the beginnings of a warm up again, with highs in the low to mid 70s for the Sound. Lows will be in the high 50s.

 

TL;DR: More rain tomorrow morning, but things will clear up and warm up after that.

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07/21/14: Did you get enough rain?

Definitely cooled down some, which is a nice change compared to the super hot temperatures we’ve been seeing. The rain was a nice touch as well, and hopefully that helped with the fires. Will it stick around?

Recap

Saturday – High 80°F, Low 60°F; A little warmer than anticipated, but still cooler than what we’ve seen. More noticeable cloud cover with a few breaks in the afternoon. Winds were breezy all day, especially in the afternoon where there were a few strong gusts.

Sunday – High 68°F, Low 60°F; Much cooler yesterday, partially due to the increased cloud cover. Winds were a little less breezy, with some showers moving through the area.

Monday – High 76°F; A little warmer today due to the clouds clearing in the afternoon. Winds were breezy throughout the day but not as strong as over the weekend, with a cloudy morning clearing up some in the afternoon. There were a few showers here and there overnight as well.

 

WARNINGS – There are 2 warnings out right now that would concern us. As usual, there is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Strait and northern Islands. On the other side of the mountains we have a Hazardous Weather Outlook, which will pertain to the rain and fires. Due to the instability of the soil where the fire was (mainly the burn scars), the heavy rainfall expected in the Cascades will have the potential to create some flash flooding or even mudslides. For more info, please see here.

FIRES – There are still a few fires in Washington, but the 3 major ones are the same we touched on last week. the Chiwaukum Complex fire is still going, but they’re making progress on it. It is currently 10% contained with evacuations in effect, as well as road closures including Highway 2. The Mills Canyon fire is definitely getting under control, currently at 75% contained. No estimated date to full containment, but there are no other evacuations or closures at this point. The third fire, Carlton Complex, is still fairly bad, with only 2% contained. Fire fighters are still making progress, but there are still all levels of evacuations in place. For a map of the fires, see here, and for detailed reports on the fires, see here.

 

An upper level low is parked off of the coast, and it looks like it will slowly start to move more into our area over the next couple of days. It’s definitely slow moving, and it looks like it starts to weaken as well. The trough looks to actually transit over us early Wednesday morning, and will be fully over us by the afternoon/evening, though in a weaker state. Regardless, it looks like we’re in for some cool weather for the next couple of days, with a decent chance at some more showers.

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An upper level low will park off the coast, and then move into the area by Wednesday, bringing in cool temperatures and showers. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The low pressure system associated with the trough is also parked off the coast, and due to the lack of strength in the system, it’s a little hard to decipher where the front is and when it will hit. It ‘s a little hard to tell, but by looking at the spurs in the isobars (lines of constant pressure) and the wind barbs, it looks like the front will hit in the morning, although it will be pretty weak by then as well. I’ll post the model in case you want to see if you can find it.

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A low parked off the coast will start to move towards our area and weaken along the way, but not before it’s front brings in a little instability for showers. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

Most of Tuesday looks to be rain-free, but that changes in the evening. It will start with the Cascades where there is a very long and strong rain band moving to the northwest, then weaken some for a few hours. By late Wednesday morning, more showers will roll into the central and south Sound areas, and from there increase/spread out to the rest of the Sound and mountains. Heaviest amounts will be in the late afternoon/early evening hours, but it looks like the rain will weaken overnight. There is some CAPE blooming around the time for the strongest showers, so there is some possibility of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, but we’ll see how that goes.

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There will be a few showers here and there on Tuesday, but the big stuff doesn’t come until Tuesday evening. A very large rain band moves through Tuesday night, followed by a small break, then more rain showing up Wednesday afternoon/evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Only potential for thunderstorms will be late afternoon/early evening Wednesday, so we’ll see how that goes. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

Tuesday will start out cloudy, then clearing some by the afternoon. By early evening, clouds will start to increase as the new system starts to move in. After that point, expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies until possibly late afternoon/early evening hours of Wednesday where there may be some sun breaks.

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Cloud cover will be fairly light tomorrow after the morning hours, but once evening rolls around, the clouds will increase with the 2 systems moving in. Wednesday may see a few sun breaks in the afternoon, but there won’t be many. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. More showers will be moving in after this snapshot. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. Some of these amounts are from the overnight showers Tuesday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will calm overnight, then increase some by the afternoon, with the stronger winds up in the Strait. After that, it looks like the winds will calm once again preceding the storm, and then increase around the same time as Tuesday. However, on Wednesday the winds will be a bit breezier when they increase, having fairly breezy conditions everywhere. Strongest once again will be up in the Strait.

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Winds will follow the same trend we’ve (supposed to have been) seeing: calm in the mornings, increasing in the afternoon/evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

It looks like the cool down will stay in place at least for the next few days. Tuesday will get a little warmer than we saw, with highs in the low to mid 70s for everyone. Lows will dip down to the high 50s. Wednesday will see slightly cooler temperatures with the increased cloud cover, with highs reaching into the high 60s to low 70s. Lows overnight will be in the mdi to high 50s.

TL;DR: Cool days with some more rain moving in, and a possibility of thunderstorms.

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07/18/14: Well, we got the cool down. Anything else on the way? Maybe rain?

It definitely feels cooler already, but will it last?

*SPECIAL NOTE* Because the fire season is in full swing now, I’ve decided to start giving a brief write-up on the current fires, just like the warnings. And because it’s so important, I will be putting it at the top of the page before the forecast, just like the warnings.

Recap

Thursday – High 81, Low 57; Mostly cloudy in the morning, clearing up to mostly clear for the afternoon. Winds were breezy all day as well.

Friday – High 76; A bit more cloud cover throughout the day, but still with a few breaks here and there in the afternoon. Breezy all day.

WARNINGS – 2 warnings out right now: A Gale Watch For the Strait, and an Air Quality Advisory on the east side of the mountains due to all of the smoke from the fires. With the showers moving in, I don’t think they’ll be issuing any Red Flag Warnings anytime soon, but that can change very quickly. For more info, see here.

FIRE – As of right now, there are 5 major wildfires in Washington, 3 of which are of major concern: Carlton Complex, Chiwaukum Creek, and Mills Canyon. The Carlton Complex is actually 3 smaller fires that merged into one large fire, was caused by lightning, and it has potential to be pretty bad. Currently 7 mi. S of Twisp, it is 0% contained, rapidly spreading, and has caused structural damage and numerous road closures. Mills Canyon and Chiwaukum Creek have been combined into one as well, and the cause is still unknown. Adjacent to Entiat, this one is 40% contained, but still may flare up with the winds and dry fuel. For more fire information, see here for a report, and here for a map.

 

The jet stream will continue to stay around where it is through Saturday. By the time Sunday rolls around, it looks like a small trough will form off the coast, and start to make its way east. This will keep things cool, and also bring in some showers as well, which will hopefully help out with the fires.

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The jet stream will continue to move south, bringing cooler air and showers to the area. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

I don’t see too much in the way of fronts on the sea level pressure map. I will be skipping this one today.

The showers will start up later tonight, but mainly just for north Sound, Cascades, and Olympics. The entire area of Kitsap and central Sound will be under a rain shadow until early Sunday morning. There may be a stray shower or two that wanders in during that time, but don’t expect too much. By Sunday afternoon things will turn a bit more scattered. The CAPE model is drawing a blank this weekend, which makes sense since there isn’t really anything that will cause any instability for thunderstorms.

Hopefully you got enough sunshine for the past few weeks, because it’s taking a little vacation this weekend. Starting tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies with a couple breaks here and there mainly for south Sound. By Sunday afternoon/evening things will start to clear up some, but not by much.

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Showers will move in tonight, and mainly stick to the mountains and north Sound until Sunday. By that time the showers will start to move into the central Sound area. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Clouds, clouds, and more clouds for this weekend. Slight clearing here and there, but don’t expect too much. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will definitely stay breezy for the majority of the weekend. Saturday will see some pretty strong winds for the entire Sound area, mainly in the afternoon. And as usual, the Strait will have even stronger winds. The Cascades will stay pretty breezy as well, which won’t really help much with the fires, but hopefully the rain will cancel that out. By Sunday things will calm a little bit all around with the exception of the Cascades.

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Winds will definitely pick up overnight, and continue to be breezy and gusty for the Sound on Saturday. Winds will be the strongest in the Strait and Cascades. By Sunday things will calm again, but still have a few breezes. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As I discussed coming into this weekend, we can expect cooler temperatures, but they’ll still be summer temperatures. Saturday will see a mixed bag of highs, with the majority of the Sound reaching into the low 70s with cooling closer to water, and warmer temperatures in south Sound. Kitsap will actually see cooler highs, only getting up into the high 60s. Lows will be in the high 50s, warming slightly to the south. Sunday won’t have a chance to warm up because of the clouds, with highs in the high 60s for the entire Sound, cooling closer to water, and the possibility of warmer temperatures in major urban areas. Lows will be about the same as Saturday.

TL;DR: Cooler temperatures, and rain on the way.

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07/16/14: Are you tired of the heat yet? I have news!

Sorry I didn’t get a chance to post on Monday, moving/unpacking definitely takes energy! Since I missed Monday, I won’t be doing a recap, but as you all know, it was very very hot over the weekend and for the beginning of the week. But there may be some relief in the near future…

WARNINGS – 2 warnings I want to bring to your attention tonight. There is a Gale Watch in effect for the northern waterways due to the predicted high winds. And there are Red Flag Warnings in effect for basically every county on the NWS Seattle map east of the Cascades. Weather is favorable for fires, and even though it will be expiring tomorrow, it’s always better to be safe. For more info, please see here.

Over the next couple of days, the jet stream will start to make its way back down south. This means the warmer air should start to move back south as well, hopefully cooling us off some. There is also a small short wave trough that will be to the north of us, and it may have an associated system that will reach us, but we’ll see how that goes.

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The jet stream will move to the south, pushing some of the warmer air out of the way and making way for a slight cool down. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

On the sea level pressure map, it looks like it’s all high pressure for Thursday and most of Friday, but towards the end of Friday a low pressure system starts to move in to the north of us. It looks to be of decent strength, and it actually looks like it’s cold front may reach down to us. As of right now it doesn’t look like it will hit us by the end of the forecast period, but it may hit later in the evening, if not this weekend.

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The high pressure that is keeping the clouds away will stick around for a bit, but towards Friday evening a low pressure system will start to move in from the north, and it’s associated fronts will be parked off the coast at the end of the forecast period. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

As of right now, it looks like we’ll stay clear of moisture for the next couple of days. There may be a few showers that roll through the area, but those will mainly be in the mountains. Even though it’s pretty empty, I am going to post the model because you can see the beginnings of the frontal moisture up over Vancouver Island towards the end of the forecast period, so it’s definitely on it’s way! I see no potential for thunderstorms for the rest of the week, and that may be the case for the weekend as well, but we’ll find out in a couple days.

For Thursday, we can expect the same situation for cloud cover that we’ve been seeing for the past couple of days: morning clouds and patchy fog here and there. That should clear up for the most part by the afternoon. Friday will start out that way too with more clouds, and the clouds may part for a little bit in the afternoon, but we can expect more cover with the system moving in.

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Dry forecast for Thursday and most of Friday with the exception of a couple showers in the mountains. The main reason why I’m posting this is because at the end of the forecast, you can see the rain start to move in over Vancouver Island, and that will move its way south later Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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The clouds will act as they have been for the past few days: cloudy with some patchy fog in the morning, clearing up later in the day. Friday will start with more clouds, still clear some, but will have increased cover in the afternoon/evening as well. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

I will be skipping the 24hr amounts since there isn’t really anything to show.

Winds will follow the same trend that we’ve been seeing as well: calm overnight and into the morning, picking up as the day progresses. The stronger winds will be in the mountains, and the strongets will be in the Strait during the evening hours.

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Winds will follow the same trend as we’ve been seeing basically all summer: calm in the morning, breezy in the afternoon. Strongest winds will be in the mountains and Strait during the evening hours. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As hinted above, with the jet stream moving south, we can expect a little bit of a cool down. Now when I say cool down, I’m not talking about down to the 60s or anything. Make no mistake, it’s still going to be warm, just not as warm. Thursday will see highs in the mid 70s, with the possiblity of warmer temperatures in the major urban areas. Lows will be in the mid to high 50s. Friday will see even more of a cool down with the frontal system pressing down on us, with highs only reaching into the low 70s. Lows will be the same since the clouds will act as a insulating blanket for the heat radiation.

 

TL;DR: Temperatures will be dropping a little, and there is some rain on the way (for the next forecast period)!

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07/11/14: Grab some Slurpee’s, it’s going to be a hot weekend…

Make sure you grab a Slurpee for National Slurpee Day (7/11!). All fun aside, it is going to be very very hot this weekend, and into next week as well. So make sure you take all of the necessary precautions like hydration and sun screen (I’ll be mentioning this a couple times because it’s so important).

Recap

Thursday – High 84°F, Low 60°F; Very clear day with maybe a cloud or two in the sky. Winds picked up a little bit starting mid morning, but calmed down by mid evening as expected.

Friday – Currently the high is 85°F, but that will probably go up, I’m just posting early; Clear day once again, with winds picking up by mid morning.

 

WARNINGSThis is probably one of the most important warnings to listen up about! NWS Seattle has released an Excessive Heat Watch for the entire Puget Sound region. Temperatures will be getting very high (for our standards) this weekend, and combine that with high humidity, this turns into a melting pot of bad things (pun intended). Make sure you keep yourself, family and pets well hydrated with water, try to stay in cool places, stay out of the sun if possible, and check on family and neighbors, especially the elderly. No one is immune to heat illness! For more info about location, see here, and for a nice infographic, see here.

As for the wildfires, it looks like the main one is the Mills Canyon fire near Entiat, WA. As of this morning, it is said to be 19% contained, so hopefully the firefighters are getting a handle on it. With that said, if you find yourselves on the other side of the mountains this weekend (like me), make sure you are aware of any bans, evacuations, and your general surroundings as well. For more info on the fires, see here.

 

The ridge that formed over us is going to stick around, and it will actually get stronger as well. As the jet stream moves further north, more of that really hot southern air will start to creep north as well. The ridge shows no signs of moving, and I think this one is going to stick around until at least early next week, maybe even later.

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The ridge that built over us earlier will just get stronger as the weekend progresses. This means hotter temperatures. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The associated high pressure system will stick to off the coast for the weekend, but it will still help keep things clear on our end. I will not be posting this map.

With the high pressure system off the coast, we can expect no rain this weekend. With that said, there are still a few showers popping up in the central to southern Cascades Saturday evening. The CAPE model is telling me these will definitely be thunderstorms. Hopefully there will be a decent amount of rain associated with these, because it looks like it’ll be over near the areas that are prone to fire right now. We may get a little bit of a break from the heat Sunday evening with some showers rolling through from the south, and the CAPE shows a pretty good chance at thunderstorms again, but we’ll see how that goes. NWS isn’t saying anything about rain on Sunday, so we’ll see if the model is going crazy or not.

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Showers (possibly thunderstorms) in the Cascades Saturday evening, and showers (possibly thunderstorms) for south and central Sound Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Both Saturday and Sunday will have a significant amount of CAPE, a lot more than we’re used to seeing. This means as long as there is moisture and instability to form a storm, odds are there will be thunder and lightning with it. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

The high pressure will definitely be keeping the clouds away for the weekend as well (which will add to the heat). The only thing I’m seeing are some high clouds that may move in from the south Sunday evening, along with the clouds associated with the possible showers. You can also see the thunderstorms pop up in the Cascades Saturday evening.

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Cloud cover will be pretty light for the weekend. There may be some high clouds here and there, but the only real significant cover will be Sunday evening as the system from the south moves in. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Winds will be following the same trend as we’ve been seeing: calm overnight, picking up during the day. Highest winds will be in the waterways, especially the Strait.

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The winds will follow the same pattern we’ve been seeing for the past month or so: calm in the morning, picking up in the afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Now for the part I’m sure you’ve been waiting for: the temperatures. I normally don’t do this, but because of the high heat we’ll be getting, I will be posting the highs of the temperature model so you can see how hot things will be getting. On Saturday, we’ll see a little bit more of a warm up compared to what we got today. Highs will be in the high 80s for the entire Sound, with the decent possibility of low 90s for the major metro areas with that pesky urban heat island effect. Lows will get down to about mid 60s for everyone, with a rare high 60 as well. If you’ll remember, this was around our high temperatures a month ago. Sunday will see about the same, with a better chance of low 90s for everyone. It will be cooler towards large bodies of water, so try to get there if you want to stay cool. Lows will be the same as before.

 

TL;DR: It’s going to be very very hot. Once again, keep yourself, family, and pets well hydrated with water, try to keep cool and stay inside if you can. If you have to go outside or if you don’t want to pass up the opportunities of a beautiful day, wear plenty of sun screen and areas closer to the water will be cooler. And finally, make sure you check on neighbors and relatives, especially the elderly. Everyone is susceptible to heat illness, but the elderly are more so.

Keep cool everyone!

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07/09/14: I missed a day, but summer is here!

Sorry I didn’t get a chance to post on Monday. I have been moving this weekend, and it slipped my mind. Because of that, I will be skipping the recap and just go straight to the warnings and forecast.

WARNINGS: There are 2 warnings I want to bring to your attention. The first is the usual Small Craft Advisory in effect up in the Strait. The winds won’t be super gusty, but they’ll be strong enough to warrant a little caution if you’re out on the water. The other is a bit more major: a Red Flag Warning is in effect for a few different areas east of the Cascades. There are already a few fires on that side already, including the Mills Canyon fire near Entiat, and Rock Hill fire near Chelan, both in Chelan County, but the weather forecast is pretty conducive for an increased fire risk, including high temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds. If you find yourselves on that side of the mountains, be aware of surroundings and burn bans. For more info about weather, please see here, and for more info about the fires, visit the USDA Forest Service site.

 

The warm weather shows no signs of stopping at this point. The jet stream will continue to stay to the north, allowing the warmer air to move north, and a ridge will start to develop over the area starting Friday morning. This ridge will help usher in even warmer weather as well, so be prepared for a very warm weekend!

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Lots of warm air moving in from the south, and a large ridge will develop on Friday, which will increase temperatures even more. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

No fronts will be moving in, and a high pressure center out west will keep the systems away and the clouds away as well. I will not be posting this model.

With the exception of a small shower or two in the Olympics, the precipitation model is completely dry. Obviously, because of this I will not post any precipitation models. There is definitely some CAPE on both days, the main contributing factor being the temperature. While I don’t anticipate any thunderstorms (except maybe in the Olympics on Thursday), there may be a chance for some dry lightning (lightning without rain). This can definitely pose an issue for the areas under a Red Flag Warning, so make sure you check your area for the warning or burn bans.

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The only chance for a traditional thunderstorm with rain will be the slight chance in the Olympics on Thursday. On Friday, there is a significant amount of CAPE in the majority of the area, including areas currently under a Red Flag Warning. There is the potential for dry lightning (and more fires), but hopefully that doesn’t happen. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

We will have mostly clear skies over the next couple of days. The only significant cloud cover I see is in the morning hours, mainly for south Sound and the Olympics. This could result in some morning fog as well, so be aware of that for your morning commute. There doesn’t appear to be any cumulonimbus clouds (clouds associated with thunderstorms) forming over the areas with CAPE and Red Flag Warnings, so hopefully there won’t be anything, but that can change quickly.

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Mostly clear skies throughout the next couple of days, with some cloud cover mainly over the Olympics and to the south in the mornings. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

The winds will be following the same general trend we’ve been seeing lately: super calm in the evening, picking up a little in the afternoon. Over land there would only be some slight breezes, if that. The waterways and mountains will see slightly stronger winds, but still comparatively weak. Strongest winds will be over the Strait and in the mountain passes.

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The winds will follow the same pattern we’ve been seeing for most of the summer. Very calm winds in the morning, breezy conditions in the afternoon. Strongest will be in the Strait and Cascades. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Temperatures will definitely stay warm, and there will be an increase at the end of the week as well. For Thursday, expect highs in the low 80s for the majority of the Sound, cooling a little north of Everett. Lows will be in the high 50s to low 60s. Friday will see the warm up because of the upper level ridge forming. Highs will climb to the mid to high 80s for the entire Sound, cooling a little as you get closer to the water. Lows will be in the low 60s.

 

TL;DR: Still warm, still dry.

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