08/27/14: Ok, we got the hot weather, can we have the cool weather now? Football is starting after all!

August got back to its normal self for the past couple of days: being pretty hot. The high on Tuesday exceeded the prediction I had, and since the skies looked fairly clear this morning, Wednesday is on par with that track too. When will it be cooling down again? Hopefully soon, if not this week…

 

Recap

Tuesday – High 89°F, Low 67°F; Clear skies all day, with a few areas that had morning clouds here and there. Winds picked up some in the afternoon.

Wednesday – High 88°F; Clear skies for the majority of the day, with some scattered clouds moving in mid afternoon. Winds have been fairly calm as well, picking up slightly in the afternoon.

 

WARNINGS – There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the northern waterways, including parts of north Sound. For more information about the warning, please see here.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 11:38am 8/27. There are only 2, yes, 2 fires right now that have an incident management team, and those are a type 3 or below (not bad). Those fires are the South Cle Elum Ridge fire near Cle Elum (894 acres, 100% contained), and the Snag Canyon fire near Ellensburg (12,599 acres, 100%). For a map of the fire locations click here, and for details on the fires themselves click here.

 

As expected from the previous forecast, the jet stream will continue to move south over the next couple of days. By Thursday afternoon a little trough with cool air will move through the area. Then a small ridge will move in, warming it up again in the evening. After that a much larger trough will start to move in Friday morning as the jet stream dips further south. This is the first big trough we’ve had in a while, and it might herald the start of the change in weather for fall. We’ll see what will be associated with this trough later in the forecast, but it definitely looks like it will cool down.

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The high pressure we’ve been seeing will stick around through Thursday evening, but by that point we can see the lower pressure start to move in from the northwest. As the day progresses on Friday, the low pressure will slowly start to overtake the high pressure, increasing cloud cover and possibly bringing in some showers.

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It looks like a few scattered showers will pop up overnight and into early Thursday morning over the Sound, mainly around Kitsap and Seattle. Most of Thursday afternoon will stay relatively dry, but by commute time the showers that started in the mountains look to move down to the lowlands, starting with Kitsap. They will scatter some by the evening hours, but all areas can expect a shower or two, if that. The showers look to increase overnight, which may be a convergence zone giving its location and fairly linear form. Areas affect will be from Seattle north. These will weaken by the afternoon, and by that point there will be some smaller scattered showers. Not much with the CAPE model, but it looks like the Olympics could see a thunderstorm on Thursday. I don’t find it likely though.

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We will definitely have some morning cloud cover tomorrow as that small trough moves into the area on Thursday. These will try to clear up some by the afternoon, but not my much. Clouds will start to increase again overnight, and stay overcast to mostly cloudy at least until towards the end of the forecast period.

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Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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Winds will calm overnight, then start to pick up again by the afternoon. Things will start to calm again overnight, but not as much as it has been with the systems moving in. The Sound will still stay a little breezy at least, but areas around the Olympics and Cascades may see some calm winds. As the day progresses, the winds will effectively go the exact opposite: areas immediately around the Sound will calm down, while all the other areas will see breezy conditions. The Strait will see high winds generally for the duration of the forecast.

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With the troughs moving in and the increase in cloud cover, we can definitely expect at least a little bit of a cool down over the next couple of days. Thursday will see highs in the low 70s for the majority of the Sound, with the possibility of slight higher temperatures in the major metro areas. Lows will be in the high 50s. Friday will see highs in the lows 70s for south and central Sound, and actually cooler for Kitsap and north Sound, possibly dipping below 70. Lows will be in the high 50s once again.

 

TL;DR: Cooler temperatures in our immediate future, along with some rain!

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08/25/14: There’s a change in the air…

Pretty warm weekend, with mostly clear skies all around. As hinted at in the title, I’m expecting us to make the change to cooler weather starting later this week, but first we have another round of hot temperatures.

 

Recap

Saturday – High 84°F, Low 60°F; Mostly clear skies, with breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday – High 79°F, Low 61°F; Sunday saw a little bit of a cool down with the trough trying to move into the area, but still stayed pretty warm. Scattered clouds in the morning clearing up some by the afternoon, winds were breezy in the afternoon as well.

Monday – High 83°F; Mostly clear skies through the day, with some gusty winds picking up in the afternoon.

 

WARNINGS – The only warning out right now is a Small Craft Advisory for northern waterways. For more info, please see here.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 3:31pm 8/25. It’s looking like there’s some good news in regards to the fires. We currently have 6 fires on the map, all of which have a Type 3 or lower management team on site, meaning the fires are getting under control. The fires are South Cle Elum Ridge near Cle Elum (894 acres, 97% contained), Snag Canyon near Ellensburg (12,599 acres, 92%), Auvil Canyon near Waterville (604 acres, 100%), Carlton Complex near Okanogan, Twisp, and Omak (256,108 acres, 100%), Little Bridge Creek near Winthrop (4,958 acres, 100%), and Upper Falls near Winthrop and Omak (8,120 acres, 100%). For a map of the fire locations click here, and for details on the fires themselves click here.

 

As expected, the ridge we saw at the end of the forecast last week will be moving in overnight. Because of this, we can expect hot temperatures, but it looks like it will be on its way pretty quick. The models are showing the jet stream moving south by Wednesday morning, and by the end of the forecast period it will be knocking on our northern door, but the warm temperatures will still stick around.

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A ridge will continue to move into the area through Monday, but by Tuesday the jet stream will start to move a little further south, cooling things off a little. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

High pressure will be sticking around, and there really isn’t much else on the sea level pressure map. I’ll be skipping this one today.

As has been the case for the past week or so, it looks like the only showers we’ll be seeing will be up in the mountains. This will pop up in the afternoon/evening hours, and look to be a little weaker than what we’ve been seeing lately. They will mainly be sticking to the northern Cascades and western slopes of the Olympics. There are a couple small blooms on the CAPE model around those shower times, so it looks like there will be a decent chance for mountain thunderstorms. They will mainly be in the Olympics on Tuesday it looks like, but the Cascades may get some on Wednesday.

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Lowlands will stay dry, while the Olympics and parts of the Cascades will get some afternoon rain. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Only significant possibility for thunderstorms will be tomorrow afternoon in the Olympics and Cascades. Even then, there may not be too much thunder and lightning. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

It looks like both days we’ll start the day with some morning clouds and possibly some patchy fog here and there. By Tuesday afternoon the clouds will clear up quite a bit with the exception of the Olympics. Overnight the clouds/fog will move in again over the water, this time there looks to be a bit more. It will take a little longer for these clouds to burn off, but we should end the forecast period with mostly clear skies, except for the Cascades and Olympics (Kitsap as well this time).

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Most of our clouds will be in the morning, and there may be some patchy fog here and there. By the afternoon things should clear up for the most part, but Wednesday will have a little bit of a harder time doing that. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

I almost don’t need to say it, but I’m going to anyways. Winds will be the same as we have been seeing. Calm in the morning, picking up in the afternoon, and then calming again by late evening. Strongest winds will be over the waterways, mainly over the Strait. Wednesday will see the strongest winds for waterways, especially up in the Strait, but the Sound will see high winds as well.

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Much of the same as we’ve been seeing: calm in the morning, picking up in the afternoon. Strongest winds will be up in the Strait Wednesday afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As I mentioned above, we’re going to see some high temperatures again for at least a couple days. Tuesday will be the hottest, with highs in the mid to high 80s for the majority of the Sound, cooling a little to the north. Lows will be in the low 60s. Wednesday will see high temperatures in the low to mid 80s depending on how quickly the clouds will clear, once again cooling to the north. Lows will be in the low 60s once again.

 

TL;DR: This week will be hot, but we may be making the change to fall soon!

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08/22/14: When did you say it was going to warm up?

The past couple of days have definitely been cooler, which was a nice break. But it looks like the hottest month of the year is going to make one last push before we start switching to fall weather. Hopefully it will be over soon, I’m ready for my football weather!

 

Recap

Thursday – High 73°F, Low 59°F; The day started out mostly cloudy, but then a few of them started to burn off by the afternoon, leaving us with scattered clouds. Winds started off a little breezy but started to calm a little as the evening rolled in.

Friday – High 77°F; Day started out clear, moving to scattered clouds in the afternoon. Winds picked up a bit in the afternoon as well, gusting a little at times.

 

WARNINGS – There is a Small Craft Advisory out for the northern waterways, and more importantly, the Flash Flood Watch is still in effect for the east slopes of the Cascades. With the rain their expecting falling on the fresh burn scars, there is a bit of a potential for flooding. For more info, please see here.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 9:25am 8/18. There are 10 fires that are currently burning and have incident teams on site. 2 of them are Type 3 or lower: Haven Lake near Olympia and Skokomish (168 acres, 97% contained), and Devils Elbow Complex near the Colville Indian Reservation (26,428 acres, 95%). The rest have a Type 1 incident management team: South Cle Elum Ridge near Cle Elum (894 acres, 97%), Snag Canyon near Ellensburg (12,667 acres, 92%), Hansel Creek near Leavenworth (1,073 acres, no reported containment), Carlton Complex near Okanogan, Twisp, and Omak (256,108 acres, 98%), Duncan near Entiat (12,695, no reported containment), Little Bridge Creek near Winthrop (4958 acres, 83%), Chiwaukum Complex near Leavenworth and Entiat (27,969 acres, 70%), and Upper Falls near Winthrop and Omak (8120 acres, 66%). For a map of the fire locations click here, and for details on the fires themselves click here.

 

As predicted, the trough will start to move on its way, but it looks like the jet stream is stalling a little bit. It will be parked over us through Sunday afternoon, and overnight Saturday it looks like another trough will threaten to move in. By the afternoon, the jet stream will push back, and then it will start to move towards the east, clearing the way for a ridge, little by little. This weekend will be warm, but it looks like the warm up back to the hot temperatures has just been delayed a couple days.

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The jet stream keeps another trough from moving in, but it also delays the warm up we were expecting. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

Not much in the way of any action on the sea level pressure model. High pressure off the coast, kind of low pressure across the mountains, and we’re in between. I don’t see any signs of a possible high wind event, and there may be a little bit of rotation, but I don’t expect much. I’ll be skipping this model today.

Showers in the mountains will dry out overnight, then start back up Saturday afternoon/evening. It looks like there will be a fairly strong cell on the southeast slopes of the Olympics, and some strong cells on the east side of the Cascades. The Olympic showers will die out by late evening, and the Cascades will weaken as they move east overnight. Sunday looks to be the same story, with some slight position changes and stronger showers. I don’t expect any of these events to come into the lowlands, with the exception of parts of Kitsap, who may get some showers from the system over the Olympics. Other than that, pretty dry weekend for the lowlands. There is a fairly strong CAPE bloom in the Olympics on Saturday around the showers, and a much smaller one on Sunday. Because of this, I expect a thunderstorm for the Olympics on Saturday, not so much for Sunday.

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Showers will mainly stick to the mountains in the afternoons, but a few may find their way into the lowlands, mainly over Kitsap. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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CAPE is showing possibility for thunderstorms both afternoons in both ranges, but mainly east slopes of the Cascades and Olympics. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

Skies look to be mostly clear overnight. Saturday morning will have some morning clouds, mainly in south Sound, but those will burn off real quick. The Olympics will develop some cloud cover in the afternoon as that system develops. Some high clouds looks to move into the area in the evening hours, but these will be pretty quick as well. Sunday looks to be almost the same story. The morning clouds will reach further into the Sound from the south with the possibility of patchy fog, but it won’t burn off as quickly as Saturday. We may see some scattered cloud cover through the Sound, but those will mainly stick to the mountains, and a little over Kitsap.

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Morning clouds with a chance of patchy fog, moving to scattered clouds. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will be the same song and dance as we’ve seen over the summer. Things will calm overnight, pick up a little in the afternoon, mainly over the water and mountains (especially in the Strait), then calm again overnight. Not much else too it.

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Much of what we’ve seen for the summer: calm in the mornings, picking up in the afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As mentioned above, temperature will be fairly warm this weekend, and the warm up to the hot temperatures has been delayed a little because of our good friend, the jet stream. Highs on Saturday will get up into the high 70s for the Sound, cooling a little as you get closer to the water. Lows will be in the high 50s. Sunday will see a slight decrease because of the trough that tries to move in, with highs in the mid to high 70s, cooling a little to the south. Lows will be about the same, possibly a little warmer.

 

TL;DR: Expect another nice warm weekend.

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08/20/14: How long will the cool weather last?

Definitely got that cool down we were looking for, just seems like Tuesday didn’t get the memo. Wednesday sure did though. How long will it last?

 

Recap

Tuesday – High 85°F, Low 61°F; Scattered clouds throughout the day, with winds picking up in the afternoon. They didn’t really calm down this time in the evening, and continued on into Wednesday.

Wednesday – High 73°F; Cloudy for most of the morning, clearing up some in the afternoon. Things were pretty windy all day as well, with some fairly strong gusts in the morning and afternoon.

 

WARNINGS – There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Strait and northern waterways. There is also a Flash Flood Watch for the eastern slopes of the Cascades with the incoming rain falling on the burn scars. For more info, please see here.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 8:54am 8/20. Looks like there are 10 fires in Washington of varying intensities. Two of the fires are of Type 3 or lower (not as bad), one has a Type 2 Incident Management Team (can get bad), and 7 have a Type 1 Incident Management Team (bad). The Type 3 and lower fires are Haven Lake near Olympia (168 acres, 96% contained) and actually the Carlton Complex near Okanogan, Twisp, and Omak (256,108 acres, 98%), which has definitely been downgraded. The Type 2 fire is the Devils Elbow Complex near the Colville Indian Reservation (26428 acres, 80%). Now for the Type 1 fires: Snag Canyon near Ellensburg (12667 acres, 87%), South Cle Elum Ridge near Cle Elum (894 acres, 87%), Hansel Creek near Leavenworth (1073 acres, 0%), Chiwaukum Complex near Leavenworth and Entiat (27969 acres, 70%), Duncan near Entiat (12695 acres, 0%), Upper Falls near Winthrop and Omak (8120 acres, 59%), and Little Bridge Creek near Winthrop (4958 acres, 79%). For a map of the fire locations click here, and for details on the fires themselves click here.

 

The jet stream will continue to dip down past us, and will actually bring in cooler air than what it already did. This will be short lived though, since as the trough moves in we’ll be on the trailing half of it. At the end of the forecast period the trough starts to move to the east, making way for another ridge with hot temperatures. In short, we’ll be back to our normal August temperatures by this weekend it looks like.

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The jet stream will continue to move south, bringing with it cooler air. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

As that trough comes down we’ll see some lower pressure move in as well. It’s still around the standard atmospheric pressure (around 1013 mb), but lower than what we’ve been seeing. I don’t see any actual low center over us, but there will be one nearby so we may see a little rotation in the clouds. Pressure will gradually start to increase on Friday as the trough moves along its way. I’ll post this model just so you can see.

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Pressure will be lower than what we’ve been seeing, but it will still be high enough to keep most storms away. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temps

Thursday looks to be dry for the most part. Some showers will move form in the mountains in the early evening hours, and after that the Olympic showers will start to spread out into the Sound area, mainly over Kitsap. Friday will start out the same, but the showers will move in sooner, and this time more widespread. Things will start in the mountains early afternoon, then spread to the Sound a few hours after that. Once again it will mostly be Kitsap, but south Sound will get some, and the other areas of the Sound may see a couple scattered showers here and there. Things will start to clear up again by the end of the forecast. We have a little bit of a bloom in CAPE on Friday, mainly in the mountains and Kitsap. I think it will be too cool for significant thunderstorms to produce, so don’t really expect any.

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Showers will once again mainly stick to the mountains, but a few will come down into the lowlands, mainly Kitsap and south Sound. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Friday will see some slight color for CAPE, but it may be too cool for thunderstorms. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy

Thursday will start out cloudy for the commute, then clear out some by the afternoon to scattered clouds. Things will increase a little overnight, but will be clear for the commute. This will be short lived though since those showers will be forming later, and I expect there to be scattered clouds all day.

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Cloud cover will be varied over the next couple of days. Expect cloudy conditions in the morning, clearing up some by the afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

It looks like winds will stay on the breezy side for the majority of the Sound overnight. Winds will increase for the entire area as the day progresses, with the strongest up in the Strait, and higher speeds over the Sound than over land. Winds will calm overnight for the entire area except for the Strait overnight, and by Friday afternoon they will increase again. Kitsap will actually stay somewhat calm for a portion of the day, but will still be breezy at points.

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Winds will follow the same trend we’ve been seeing: calm in the morning, picking up in the afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

We will continue to see the cool temperatures over the next couple of days, but things will start to warm up again towards the weekend. Thursday will see highs in the low 70s, with lows dipping down into the mid to high 50s. Friday will start to see the warm up with less clouds than Thursday, with highs getting into the low to mid 70s for the majority of the Sound, with Kitsap seeing temperatures a little cooler. Lows will be in the high 50s once again.

 

TL;DR: If you liked the cool weather, enjoy it while it lasts. Because it isn’t going to last.

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08/18/14: Getting towards the end of August, on average usually the hottest month of the year for Seattle. Is the heat going to make one last push?

Pretty good weekend in my eyes. It was warm enough to enjoy some time outside, but not as hot as it has been so it was a little bit more bearable. Sunday did see a little bit of a warm up, but other than that, it was pretty good.

 

Recap

Saturday – High 78°F, Low 60°F; Scattered clouds throughout the day, thicker in the morning. Winds picked up a little bit in the afternoon as well, but it was a little breezy for a good portion of the day.

Sunday – High 82°F, Low 63°F; Scattered clouds in the morning, clearing up to clear skies in the evening. There was still quite a bit less cloud cover compared to Saturday so the temperatures jumped a little bit. Winds were breezy for most of the day as well.

Monday – High 85°F; Clear skies for most of the day with increasing clouds towards the evening, with some breezy conditions later in the day.

 

WARNINGS – It looks like the only warning out right now is a Small Craft Advisory for the northern waterways. For more info about watches and warnings, please see here.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 9:25am 8/18. At this point we have 10 large fires in Washington; 2 have a Type 2 Incident Management Team (not as bad, but still bad), and the rest have a Type 1 Team (pretty bad). The 2 Type 2 fires are Haven Lake near Olympia (91% contained), and Devils Elbow Complex near the Colville Indian Reservation (60%). For the 8 larger Type 1 fires, we have the Chiwaukum Complex near Leavenworth and Entiat (70%), South Cle Elum Ridge near near Cle Elum (77%), Duncan near Entiat (0%),
Little Bridge Creek near Winthrop (37%), Snag Canyon near Ellensburg (76%), Hansel Creek near Leavenworth (0%), Carlton Complex near Okanogan, Twisp, and Omak (95%), and Upper Falls near Winthrop and Omak (35%). For a map of the fire locations click here, and for details on the fires themselves click here.

 

A small ridge was trying to build on Monday, but the jet stream isn’t having any of that. Overnight it will dip to the south, which will work on cooling things down again. By Wednesday morning it looks to dip a little bit more, so this thing looks to stay for at least a little bit. It may bring in some more clouds, and possibly some rain, but we’ll see how that goes.

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Looks like a trough will start to build in the area over the next few days, cooling things off again. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

I’m not really seeing anything on the sea level pressure map. We still have the high pressure way off over the Pacific, and it looks like the Olympics are creating a small low in the area. Now this isn’t going to be creating any fronts at all, but it may develop a little bit of rotation, like we saw a while ago when we had all of that rain. I won’t be posting this model today.

It looks like there will be some scattered showers overnight, mainly for north Sound and the Olympics. By late afternoon/early evening Tuesday it looks like some more showers will develop, this time in both mountain ranges. The models are also saying some of these showers will move down over Kitsap, south and central Sound, but they will mainly stick to the mountains. Wednesday will be mostly dry with the exception of a couple showers in Olympics and possibly south Sound. There is a little bit of color on the CAPE model for Tuesday, around the time the showers pop up. It looks like there’s a chance, but the CAPE is looking pretty weak so I’m not holding out much hope for thunderstorms.

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A few showers will move into the area, but they will mainly stick to the mountains with the exception of Tuesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Only reason I’m posting this is the small bloom in the Olympics/Kitsap on Tuesday. I don’t hold out much hope for thunderstorms though. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

Tuesday will start out with morning clouds, mainly for north Sound, but there could be patches of fog here and there as well. This should burn off relatively quickly in some areas, but by afternoon clouds will start to build up again, mainly over Kitsap and the Cascades, and by late evening it will encompass the majority of the Sound. Wednesday morning will start off cloudy with a chance for patches of fog. Most of this should clear by the afternoon, but some of it will still stick around.

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Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

The winds look to follow the same general trend as we’ve been seeing, but a little stronger. Tuesday will start out relatively calm with the exception of the Strait, and will slowly start to pick up as the day progresses for the entire area (including the Strait). By late afternoon/early evening, winds will be at their strongest. Areas to note for stronger winds will be southern Kitsap Peninsula/Mason County area, the Strait, and northern/southern Puget Sound. These will start to calm again overnight, and from there things look to stay relatively clam. The areas mentioned previously will see stronger winds compared to other places, but a bit weaker than on Tuesday.

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Winds will be a little stronger than we usually see Tuesday, but all in all we’ll still follow the same trend we’ve been seeing. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As hinted at above, we’ll see another little cool down starting tomorrow, and preliminary readings look like it will stay that way for at least a little bit. We’re still in the (average) hottest month of the year, but we’re also getting towards the end of that month. Tuesday will see highs in the mid 70s for south Sound and larger metro areas, with temperatures cooling (but not by much) in central and north Sound, and over Kitsap. Lows will be in the high 50s to low 60s. Due to the increase in cloud cover, Wednesday will see slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the low 70s for the entire Sound, cooling as you move closer to the larger bodies of water. Lows will be in the high 50s.

 

TL;DR: Increasing clouds, cooler temperatures, it’s like we’re getting closer to fall or something…

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08/15/14: Will it stay cool for the weekend? Is summer over?

Was the past couple of days a nice break from all the heat? Seemed a little muggy to me at times, it was still a nice break. That and the rain helped. It’s nice that it wasn’t a downpour like earlier this week. Will this weekend be cool too, or are we going to go back to our above-average summer heat?

 

Recap

Thursday – High 72°F, Low 65°F; Scattered showers throughout the day, and mostly cloudy all day. Winds were fairly calm in the interior at least, picking up a little bit in the afternoon.

Friday – High 78°F; Mostly cloudy for the day with some morning fog. Quite a bit of showers in the morning as well, didn’t really start to clear up until around noon, and at one point the rain was so intense it reduced visibility at Boeing Field from 10 miles to 3 miles. Winds were fairly calm once again, picking up in the afternoon.

 

WARNINGS – Not much in the way of warnings that we haven’t seen already. There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the eastern part of the Cascades. With the rain running over the burnt soil in the burn scars, this has potential for water to not accumulate in the soil and pick up debris as it runs down. There is also a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the northern waterways. For more info, please see here.

FIRESFire report was filed as of 10:54am 8/15. Quite a bit of fires right now. I count 10 major fires at this point, 7 of which have the best of the best trying to control them. Those 7 fires are the Chiwaukum Complex near Okanogan, Twisp, and Omak (70% contained), Little Bridge Creek near Winthrop (19%), Upper Falls near Winthrop (25%), Duncan near Entiat (0%), Hansel Creek near Leavenworth (0%), Snag Canyon near Ellensburg (70%), and the Carlton Complex near Okanogan, Twisp, and Omak (96%). For a map of the fire locations click here, and for details on the fires themselves click here.

 

It looks like we may still have a little bit of a trough system over us this weekend. This one isn’t nearly as strong as the short wave trough we got before, but it will still keep things somewhat cool I think. It’s very slow in its transit as it is still over us by the end of the forecast period, but I anticipate it to be gone by late Monday, if not Tuesday. If you look behind it, there is quite a bit of warm air moving in as well, so be prepared for that next week.

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A small trough will move into the area Saturday afternoon. While not as strong as the one we just had, it will slow down the anticipated warm up. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

I’m not seeing too much on the sea level pressure map. It looks like there’s a high pressure system way off the coast that might move in early next week, but other than that, nothing too useful for this round.

Rain will dry out for the most part overnight as the last system wraps up in the mountains. Saturday may see some showers way up north in the morning, then transition to showers in the mountains during the afternoon. Those will dry out pretty quick by late evening, then start back up again Sunday afternoon/evening. This time the showers will be a little stronger, mainly on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. The CAPE model is showing pretty good potential for mountain thunderstorms on Sunday. There might be one or two in the Olympics, but I think it will mainly be in the Cascades.

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The interior will stay dry for the most part, with the exception of a few showers mainly to the north. Most of the rain will be in the mountains, especially the Cascades on Sunday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

Expect cloudy conditions overnight with the possibility of some morning fog for Saturday. The clouds will try to clear later in the day, then start to clear even more by evening. Overnight the clouds will start to move in again, mainly over the water, so there’s pretty good potential for fog once again on Sunday morning. Once the sun is out for a bit those clouds will start to burn off, making way for some sunshine in the afternoon. Some areas like Kitsap may see a little bit of cloud cover if the Olympic thunderstorms have enough of an anvil shape.

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Mornings will start out cloudy with some areas of fog possible, but move to partly cloudy to mostly clear skies in the afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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Here are the 24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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Here are the 24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will be following the trend we’ve been seeing for the majority of the summer. Things will calm down quite a bit overnight, then pick up again as the day progresses. Winds will be stronger over water, with the strongest on Saturday up in the Strait. Then things will do the exact same thing for Sunday.

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Winds will be the same as we’ve seen this summer. Calm, breezy, repeat. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Temperatures will start to warm up a little bit, but not as quickly as I thought before with the new trough moving through. Saturday will see highs in the mid to high 70s for the majority of the Sound, with slightly higher temperatures in the metro areas and in south Sound. Lows will be in the low 60s. Sunday will see a bit of a warm up, with highs in the high 70s for central and south Sound, with a possibility of a few 80+ temperatures in there. North Sound will be slightly cooler, but not by much. Lows will be about the same.

 

TL;DR: We’ll be starting a gradual warm up, and the rain has departed.

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08/13/14: Ok…that’s enough rain…Can it stop now?

Well, that was quite the past couple days we had, wasn’t it. There were some pretty awesome displays of lightning Monday night, especially up north and even during the Mariners game. And with the significant amount of rain we got overnight, some places broke rainfall amount records, and some (including SeaTac) met and exceeded their average rainfall amount for August IN JUST ONE NIGHT. Is it over?

 

Recap

Tuesday – High 70°F, Low 63°F; Quite a bit of a cool down due to the cloud cover we had. Scattered showers throughout the day, with the major system moving in to Boeing Field/downtown Seattle around 9pm. Winds were pretty breezy throughout the day, especially in the afternoon.

Wednesday – High 75°F; Mostly cloudy all day with a couple sun breaks in the evening. Winds have been windy and gusty all day, and the rain continued in areas until mid morning. As mentioned above, some areas met their average August rainfall totals in just one night.

 

WARNINGS – It looks like there’s only a couple warnings tonight, mainly on the other side of the mountains. There is still a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the east side of the Cascades around the burn scars, and because of the fires a few air quality agencies have released an Air Quality Alert for areas nearby wildfires. For more info, please see here.

FIRES – Once again, too many fires to report on with the time I have. For a map of the fire locations click here, and for details on the fires themselves click here.

 

The upper level low looks like it’s stuck, as it is still over us through Thursday. It will start to weaken some overnight Thursday, and then move on it’s way by Friday evening. What this means is we can still expect some cloudy conditions with showers, but as the low weakens on Thursday we will see the temperature start to rise. It looks like temperatures are going to start to get back up to what we’ve seen lately, but we’ll see how it goes.

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An upper level low will stick around for a bit, but will weaken in the process. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

It looks like there’s a small low centered over our area, which may cause some rotation with possible systems moving in, much like what we’ve seen overnight Tuesday with the system coming from the south, then whipping around to hit the Washington coast of the Strait. As the upper level low starts to weaken, so will this surface low, and it looks like the pressure will start to increase a little by the end of the forecast period.

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A small low will be centered over the area, which will create a little bit of rotation for the systems. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temps

It looks like we’ll have scattered showers overnight, mainly in the mountains. Things will start to clear up some through Thursday, but there is a system building on the other side of the Cascades, and the rotation will bring it over to our side. By the afternoon, the system hits the eastern Cascade slopes, and it looks like the mountains will take the brunt of it. Some showers will make their way to the foothills on our side and in north Sound, but that’s really it. I’m a little hesitant on saying we’ll be completely dry, because this model is showing that for the most part, but when I started writing it this morning with the older models (I do this to get the general idea for the forecast, then update with the new models later in the afternoon when I have time) there was quite a bit of rain moving in. So we’ll have to see how it behaves. For Friday we’ll have more scattered showers in both mountain ranges, this time for Kitsap and south Sound as well. The rotation may bring some showers into the major metro areas overnight, but we’ll see about that on Friday.There is a little bit of CAPE in the Olympics Friday evening, but I don’t anticipate too many thunderstorms, mainly because it might be too cool at this point. With that said, I don’t think we’ll be getting any thunderstorms this round.

Cloudy skies overnight, and as we move into Thursday we will see some partial clearing in places throughout the day. As that new system moves in from the southeast, expect clouds to increase quite a bit. We can expect overcast skies for the majority of the day on Friday, but towards the end we may get a couple sun breaks here an there, but don’t hold out too much hope since it looks like the significant clearing will be around when the sun is going down.

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Showers will mainly stick to the mountains, with the strongest Thursday and Friday afternoon. The lowlands may see some showers as well, but we should stay relatively dry. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Clouds will be partly to mostly cloudy for the duration of the forecast period, with some clearing overnight Thursday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will calm overnight as usual. Winds looks to pick up a little Thursday afternoon, mainly in the Strait. As we progress overnight, even with the new system moving in it looks like we won’t have too much wind. Things will calm again overnight except for the Strait and a few pockets in the Sound, and then pick right back up in the afternoon, this time with strongest winds in the Strait and south Sound/Kitsap.

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Winds will follow the same trend we’ve been seeing for the most part: calm in the mornings, picking up in the afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

As hinted to above, the upper level low will start to weaken starting Thursday, so we can expect the temperature to start coming back up. Thursday will see highs in the mid 70s, with warmer temperature up in the north and in the Hood Canal area. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s for east Sound, and cooler on the west side of the Sound. Friday’s highs are really dependent on when the clouds start to clear and how much they clear. Right now it’s looking like highs will be in the mid to high 70s. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s once again.

 

TL;DR: Looks like one more big round of rain Thursday night, and things are starting to warm up again.

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