Will this rain ever end? At least it’s not cold, right?
Tuesday – High 58°F, Low 45°F; Started the day with rain, and ended the day with rain, with a small break in the middle. It looks like for the day Boeing Field got around 0.35in of rain. Mostly cloudy throughout the day with very few sun breaks, and the wind pretty breezy all day, especially in the afternoon.
Wednesday – High 55°F; Scattered showers throughout the day, mostly cloudy skies, and windy conditions all day as well.
WARNINGS – There is still a Flood Warning up north that says it will expire tomorrow, but with the rain moving in tonight, I expect them to extend it. We have some Small Craft Advisories in effect for all waterways, and an Avalanche Warning for the western slopes of central and southern Cascades. This is mainly due to the amount of snow the area has been getting in addition to the incoming rain, which will help loosen slabs of snow. For more details, please see here.
It looks like the small ridge that is over us will move on overnight, giving way to another trough. It looks like it’s a little slow moving, but it also looks larger than the one we just had so it may be around for a little while longer. By Thursday night it’s cooler air will be over us, which will cool us down some. Again, like last time, it’s not going to take us to really cold winter temperatures. With the sun out longer, it’s working to counteract that cold air. But we will see a drop in temperatures by at least a few degrees. That cold air starts to weaken some by Friday evening, and the trough starts to weaken and move away.
There is a fairly deep low situated off the coast that is associated with the incoming trough. And as with deep lows we have strong and well defined fronts. It looks like this cold front won’t hit us until Thursday morning. It at least hits the coast by then, but it kind of stalls there for a few hours before continuing on into the Sound area by the evening (although we’ll still more than likely see the rain that it pushed ahead). After that, there is a bit of a jumble for pressure as the low weakens and finally dies out up north by Vancouver Island. Since there isn’t too much of a pressure difference at this time, I don’t anticipate strong winds, but we’ll see how that goes later on.
More rain will be moving in overnight, with the brunt of it in the wee hours of the morning on Thursday. By commute time things will have calmed down to showers, which will continue through the day until evening. The foothills may see a little more increased precipitation due to some uplift of the system. By Friday things start to dry out a little bit, and then more showers start to move in towards the afternoon, mainly pockets of fairly strong rain. Looking at the CAPE model it looks like we have some decent potential for thunderstorms this time around, for Thursday morning, and both Thursday and Friday afternoon. I don’t anticipate thunder in the morning since it won’t be warm enough (although I may be wrong, but we usually don’t get thunderstorms in the mornings), and the afternoon has a weak chance, the only place with a significant chance is the foothills/Cascades. Friday however should have a pretty decent chance. It will mainly be the Olympics/Kitsap/south Sound and parts of north Sound, and if you look at the CAPE model and the precipitation model, those strong showers coincide with the timing of the CAPE.
Snow will be fairly scattered through Thursday evening. After that, things will dry out quickly for a while, starting up again Friday afternoon as those systems move in. There is a chance for “thundersnow” but we’ll see how that goes.
Cloud cover overnight will be fully overcast, moving to partly cloudy by Thursday morning as the system moves to scattered showers. After Thursday afternoon things tend to stay fairly clear for the most part until Friday afternoon when the possible thunderstorms start to roll in.
Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,
And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.
With the low pressure system and the front moving in, we can expect more breezy conditions for everyone. It looks like the strongest hit will be the Olympics and Cascades, followed by Puget Sound and Kitsap surprisingly. The winds should start to die down by Thursday evening, and by Friday everyone should have moved to calmer winds.
As mentioned before, the temperatures will be a little on the cooler side for the most part compared to what we’ve seen in the past couple weeks. Highs on Thursday will only reach into the mid 50s, with the possibility of high 50s for north Sound. Lows will be in the mid 40s, warming as you get closer to water. Friday will see a little bit of a warm up (giving more plausibility to the thunderstorm situation) with the departure of most of the clouds. Highs will get into the mid to high 50s for most of the Sound, while others will see mid 50s. Lows will be in the mid 40s once again.
TL;DR: Little bit more rain on the way, less clouds, and a decent chance at thunderstorms on Friday