Halloween is finally upon us, and living in the Northwest, people generally expect it to be at least a little wet. I know when I lived in Wyoming, it wasn’t unheard of to have a little snow on the ground, so at least we won’t have that! Will it be wet this year? Read on to find out!
Tuesday – High 62°F, Low 57°F; Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day, with a few sunbreaks here and there in the afternoon, before more rain moved in. Speaking of, we had some fairly strong showers in the morning, accumulating almost 0.2in of rain at Boeing Field. The evening hours got some rain as mentioned before, but not much, barely any measured. Winds were pretty breezy throughout the day, with the strongest winds occurring late afternoon/early evening.
Wednesday – High 65°F; Overcast in the morning, clearing up a bit as we moved into the afternoon. Showers in the morning only amounted to less than 0.1in, and dried out by mid morning. Winds were still pretty breezy throughout the day, with some fairly strong gusts here and there.
WARNINGS – There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the northern waterways. I don’t see any wind items for over land (specifically the mountains), but NWS may release something for that later. A Flood Watch is still in effect for Mason County, specifically for the Skokomish River and it’s streams. Quite a bit of rain moving in, so make sure you’re prepared. There is also a Hydrologic Outlook for way up north for Whatcom County. This is basically a fancy way of saying there’s a lot of rain on the way. Specifically for the Mount Baker area, and the Nooksack River. The river level will rise considerable, but it doesn’t look like it will reach flooding levels (hence the outlook, not a flood watch like Mason County). For more info, please see here.
As I expected, the large trough over the Pacific will slowly start to make its way towards us over the next couple of days. The trough will start moving but the leading edge doesn’t really want to budge, so it will just scrunch up until Thursday afternoon/evening. After that point, the jet stream will start to move east, bringing the trough with it. As it makes landfall, it looks like it starts to weaken some, as well as try to break off an isolated low, but it doesn’t look like it will. Regardless, by the end of the forecast (and just in time for trick or treating), a large mass of cold air will be moving in.
It looks like the low we saw at the end of the forecast last time hasn’t quite turned out like it was supposed to. But it looks like the front is still there. It will start to move in and make landfall on Friday, but in a weaker state than last forecast. The low center will start to move in as well, but it’s in a weaker state as well. It doesn’t look like it will be in a position to create strong winds, so at least there’s that.
Hopefully you enjoyed the dry spell, because it’s changing real quick overnight. A new system will move in early Thursday morning, right in time for the commute. The strongest part will be in the morning, and after that we’ll move to rain throughout the day (just not as much as the morning). Kitsap may see some slightly heavier rain than the rest of the Sound due to their proximity to the Olympics (uplift showers carrying over to them). By Thursday evening the rain will start to increase again, and by Friday commute a new system (this one associated with the front) will move in to add some more. This rain will be pretty heavy at times, so be careful on the roads! Don’t be that guy who causes a huge backup because you were following too close to someone! The rain will continue throughout the rest of the day, and by the end of the forecast period the system will be getting smaller, but a bit of rain will still be falling. If you live in north Sound, prepare for some soggy ghouls, as that is where the strongest part will be. As this new low starts to move in, it will be bringing some CAPE along with it. There’s only a little bit, and the temperatures are looking to stay cool, so I’m not expecting thunderstorms.
The snow is looking pretty light over the forecast. The higher elevations will be getting some, but the lower elevations won’t see any of the white stuff until Thursday afternoon/evening, when the cold front moves in to cool things down. Most of this will probably me a mix, but the mountains are slowly but surely getting snow.
With the 2 systems moving in, we can definitely expect and increase in cloud cover. Skies will be overcast for the entire forecast period, at least until Friday evening. There will be a few breaks in the clouds at that time, but don’t expect too much.
Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,
And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.
Winds are going to start to pick up again, but it shouldn’t be as bad as they were previously. We’ll see the increase start overnight tonight, and it will mainly stick to the mountains and the Strait. The way the winds are set up, the mountains will be blocking most of the wind, not using the Sound as it’s own personal wind tunnel, so expect mostly calm conditions for the Interior. These areas will see these strong winds until Thursday afternoon/evening, where we’ll see some calming throughout the area for at least a little bit. By Friday morning, the winds will start to increase again, this time for the Interior, mainly north Sound. Then after that, it looks like the winds instantly calm by afternoon. Due to the fact that they calmed so quickly, I’m inclined to believe it may be an issue with the model, but to be on the safe side, expect breezy conditions for north Sound.
Temperatures will be about the same as we’ve been seeing, with a slight cool down by Friday. Thursday will see highs in the very high 50s to low 60s, with the higher temperatures mainly on the east side of the Sound. Lows will be in the low 50s for Kitsap and south Sound, with the chance for very high 40s for north Sound. Friday will actually not get much warmer than the lows on Thursday, with highs getting into the mid 50s. Lows will be in the mid to high 40s.
TL;DR: Make sure your little monsters, cartoons, heroes, etc. have an umbrella. Don’t want to cover up their nice costumes.