10/24/14: Did you get your yard work done?

As expected, quite a bit of rain moved in on Thursday, and there were even a few thunderstorms here and there. We’re staying fairly dry today, but how long is that going to last?

 

Recap

Thursday – High 62°F, Low 50°F; As I mentioned above, we got a bit of rain on Thursday, but at least it wasn’t as much as on Wednesday. Boeing Field registered just under half an inch of rain, with some areas getting more throughout the day, as well as a few thunderstorms moving through. Skies were overcast for most of the day, with a few sun breaks towards the evening. Winds were pretty windy all day, with gusts getting up to 22mph.

Friday – High 60°F; Not as much rain today, only a few showers moving through the area in the morning. Skies have been mostly cloudy to overcast, with breezy conditions in the morning. The rain from the next system has started to move in at the time of posting.

 

WARNINGS – Right now, all there is is a Wind Advisory in effect for the foothill areas for strong winds overnight. This can cause local power outages, and snap tree branches as well. With the wind forecast you’ll see below, I expect a few more advisories for both land and waterways this weekend. For more info, please see here.

 

Washington Huskies vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (Kickoff 7:45pm) – Hopefully the Sun Devils draw their power from the Sun, because they won’t be getting any on Saturday! Not to mention all of this rain may come as a shock to them (if anyone remembers the UW/Arizona game last year, it was quite a blowout, and not in the deserts favor). If you don’t have a rain jacket or a poncho (don’t bring an umbrella, don’t be that guy), you should probably go get one now. The rain will have started well before the game, and looks to stick around for the entire game. Winds will be fairly calm towards the beginning of the game, but may start to pick up as it progresses. As for temperatures, the game should start in the mid 50s, and drop a bit from there, so make sure you bring a warm rain jacket.

 

It looks like the trough that was expected to break off into an isolated upper level low will actually not break up, and will continue to move east into our area. This is definitely going to cool things down, and it will be bringing in even more weather. Once it moves over us, it will start to spread out some and make itself at home. On Sunday, an arm of cold air will move in from Canada, which will cool things down a few more degrees. By the end of the forecast, the trough will start to move east again, putting us into a transition between this trough and hopefully a ridge. That didn’t quite work out last time, so we’ll have to see how things go on Monday.

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The trough won’t break up like we thought, and will continue moving east to bring in more weather. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

For once, there’s quite a bit of activity on the sea level pressure model. The low to the southwest which brought in the frontal system on Friday will actually move to the northeast very quickly (it helps that another low will form near us, so it just melds into that one). By Saturday afternoon/evening, we’ll have a low pressure system right above us, and it’ll move slightly north as the day progresses. By late evening, it looks like the associated cold front will swoop in, cooling things down and bringing in some rain (and hopefully snow). After that, it will start to move away and weaken slightly, so Sunday doesn’t look too bad for pressure/fronts. As for rain, temperatures, and wind, that may be a different story.

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A low pressure system will move up into our area, with its front whipping around to bring in rain and wind. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m wind speeds, and temp

The next frontal system will start to move in overnight tonight from the south. Hardest hit areas will be the mountains, especially the Olympics. The Sound will get a good dousing, but Kitsap and Mason Counties will be getting quite a bit. If you live near a river or stream in those areas, be prepared for probable flooding! Through Saturday, it looks like things will start to break up into scattered showers and then dry out, but then the new front will just push everything back in. The strong showers will be a little more widespread this time, with all areas getting some significant precipitation. Sunday appears to dry out of the most part, with scattered showers mainly sticking to the mountains. By the afternoon, more rain will start to move in, with heavier rain in the mountains and up by the border. This low pressure system will bring along a decent amount of CAPE as well, especially on Sunday. Even though I think it might be too cold for thunderstorms on Sunday, the CAPE model things otherwise, along with the fact that we had one the other day. I’m thinking an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly on Sunday, mainly in the foothills and mountains.

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One frontal system will bring rain in from the south, then another one will just push it right back from the west. Quite a bit of water heading out way. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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The low pressure system will bring in enough instability for thunderstorms to form. Best chance will be on Sunday in the foothills. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

Snow will continue to fall up in the Cascades overnight tonight, then dry out for Saturday, with a few scattered snow showers in the higher elevations. By late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, quite a bit more snow will start to fall in the Cascades, and that snow level will be dropping with the temperatures. Most of the snowfall should be done by mid morning, but it’ll start to pick up again by the end of the forecast. Ski and snowboard season is getting closer!

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Snow will continue to fall in the northern Cascades overnight, then more snow will move in late Saturday for the entire Cascade range. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

Expect overcast skies tonight, and by Saturday afternoon we may see some sun here and there. But as that front starts to push everything back in, expect the skies to turn overcast once again. Things look to start to clear up by Sunday morning, but not by much. I’m expecting mostly cloudy skies for most of the day, with cloud cover increasing towards the end of the forecast.

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Expect overcast skies for the majority of the weekend. Sunday may see some sun breaks, but not much. SOURCE: UW Models; 4 km Clouds, Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Expect winds to stay pretty windy going into Saturday, especially up in the Cascades, and even more in the Olympics and Salish Sea. Very gusty conditions for these areas, as well as some strong gusts for the Sound. It’s actually looking like most of the weekend is going to be pretty windy/gusty, with the strongest winds in the same areas. Things will start to calm some by Sunday afternoon, but strong winds will stick around for central Sound.

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Very wind conditions in store for the weekend, especially up in north Sound, the Strait/Salish Sea, and the Olympics. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the cold air moving in from Canada on Sunday, we can definitely expect a cool down around that time. For Saturday, we will actually have temperatures similar to what we’ve seen recently. With that cold front moving in, we will actually hit our high around mid afternoon, getting into the low to mid 60s for the Sound. Lows will be in the high 40s to low 50s. Sunday will see cooler temperatures, with highs only getting into the mid 50s. There may be some warmer temperatures along Hood Canal and the northern part of Kitsap, but not by much. Lows will be in the high 40s once again.

 

TL;DR: Hopefully you got your yard work done before this weekend. Not that you had many opportunities during the week…

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10/22/14

Quite a bit of rain we got. Definitely wouldn’t advise driving around in that, as it got pretty heavy at times. Unfortunately, since it happened right in the middle of the week, not many of us had a choice.

 

Recap

Tuesday – High 64°F, Low 57°F; Most of the rain fell in the morning, with trace amounts through the rest of the day. Boeing Field had around 0.1in of measurable rain. Overcast for the entire day, winds were very breezy throughout the day as well. Sustained winds were peaking at around 15mph, with gusts at 21mph.

Wednesday – High 59°F; Quite a bit more rain today, with the gauge measuring out about an inch of rain at Boeing Field, more in some places, and more on the way. Skies were obviously overcast throughout the day, and winds were breezy for the day, but not as strong as Tuesday.

 

WARNINGS – At this point, we only have a Flood Warning out for Mason County, specifically for areas near the Skokomish River. For more info, please see here.

 

The bad news is that the trough is going to be sticking around for at least a few more days. The good news is that it looks like it will start to weaken some. That means the super cold core of the trough will be weakened by the time it gets to us, if it does at all. It looks like it won’t, because by the end of the forecast period, the trough will split into a weak trough and an isolated upper level low. The low may cause some havoc on us if it moves north, but we’ll have to see how that goes for the next forecast.

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The trough will start to weaken, and actually split into an upper level low by Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

I don’t see too much going on with the frontal systems until Friday. At that point, a very strong surface low (possibly associated with the upper level low) will start to move closer to the coast. It won’t bring in a cold front like we’re used to these systems doing, but a warm front will try to move in from the south. It doesn’t look like it will hit by the end of the forecast period, but it’ll be pretty darn close.

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A warm front will start to move in from a very strong low to the south by Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m wind speeds, and temp

The front that brought in all of this rain will move on its way, but it will be leaving behind quite a disturbance. Things will start to dry out overnight, but we’ll still have some scattered showers for most of the Sound. These showers will get stronger as Thursday progresses, especially up in the mountains. By Friday morning, everything will start to weaken and dry out from south to north, so we’ll at least get a little bit of a break from the rain for most of Friday. However, towards the end of the forecast period, you can see the next frontal rain band moving in from the south, so it’s not over yet. The CAPE model is showing some activity Thursday afternoon, but with the temperature being the way it is, there may not be enough of a chance for convective uplift to occur. With that said, we had the thunderstorm roll through north Sound the other day, so I won’t rule it out, but it’ll be an isolated thunderstorm at best.

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We’ll move to scattered showers for Thursday, with the rain drying up by Friday. We can see the next frontal system to the south at the end of the forecast. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

Snow will continue to fall in the higher elevations, mainly in the north Cascades. This will weaken and die out by Friday morning, but if temperatures up there stay cool enough, there should be more snow moving in with the front, as is evident at the end of the model in the southern Cascades.

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The snow will still stick to the higher elevations. It will dry out with the rain on Friday, but more is on its way. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

We’ll start to see some breaks in the clouds tonight, but I’m still expecting mostly cloudy skies for Thursday and into Friday. Even with the rain moving away on Friday, I’m not seeing any chances for significant sun breaks.

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Expect mostly cloudy skies for the next couple of days, including when the rain is gone. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Winds will continue to stay on the windy side for Thursday, with the strongest over the waterways, mainly the Sound and Hood Canal. The winds show some signs of calming as the rain moves north on Friday, so we can at least look forward to that. However, it will be short lived, as we can see the winds start to increase again towards the south as that front starts to move in.

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Winds will stay windy through Friday morning, with strongest winds over the waterways. After they calm for a little bit, expect them to pick up again by Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With all of this cloud cover we’re expecting, temperatures should be about the same as they have been, if not a little cooler. Thursday will see highs in the high 50s to very low 60s for the entire Sound. Lows will be in the low 50s since the clouds will be acting as an insulated blanket. Friday won’t be much better, with highs in the same range, possibly a little higher with the rain moving away, but not by much. Lows will be the same as well.

 

TL;DR: Just when the end is in sight, more rain is on its way.

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10/20/14: Better batten down the hatches.

Very nice weekend! It definitely got a little warmer than anticipated on Sunday, I saw a lot of tshirts at the pumpkin patch. Not to mention quite a number of records were broke with the highs. Will this last?

 

Recap
Saturday – High 68°F, Low 56°F; Cloudy all day, with a number of showers rolling through. Boeing Field got around 0.3in of rain for this day. Winds were pretty breezy in the morning and afternoon, but calmed by early evening.

Sunday – High 74°F, Low 60°F; Very warm day, lots of records broken, including at Boeing Field and SeaTac. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, the day was pretty dry, but there were some strong winds and gusts in the afternoon.

Monday – High 66°F; Mostly cloudy skies with rain in the morning. Boeing Field received around a quarter of an inch of rain. Winds were breezy for most of the day.

 

WARNINGS – (CHECK) Right now there are a few warnings out, mostly wind based. First, we have a Hydrologic Outlook for Mason County, specifically near the Skokomish river. This is just a fancy way of saying there is a lot of rain moving in, so there is a good chance of flooding. If you live near the Skokomish River, any of its streams, or any river for that matter, be aware and prepared. For the winds, we have Small Craft Advisories, Gale Watches, and there will more than likely be some Gale Warnings as the front progresses through the Tuesday night into Wednesday, for all waterways. For more info, please see here.

 

The short wave trough that brought in the rain will start to move away overnight, but there’s an even larger one right behind it. As with most large upper level systems, this one is slow moving, so it won’t really start to move in until Wednesday evening at the end of the forecast. But between the short wave trough and this one, we’ll still be stuck in a transition phase, so I’m expecting some unstable air to stick around, keeping the rain around as well.

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The short wave trough will move along overnight, only to move into a transition phase before a larger trough. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

The sea level pressure map is kind of a mix of a lot of things, but the main thing is a pretty strong front that will move in Tuesday night. It’s a little difficult to see, but if you remember what I’ve said in the past (or look at the info page of the blog), one of the tell-tale signs of a front is a sharp change in wind direction and speed. You can see this Tuesday evening right near the isotherm (line of constant temperature), and watch it progress as it makes landfall.

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A very large and strong front will move into the area Tuesday evening, as seen by the strong wind change around that time. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

The showers will start to dry out tonight, with the Olympics and north Sound getting some rain Tuesday morning. Most of the rain in the Sound will clear out by the afternoon, but by commute time more rain will be moving in from the coast. This will bring some pretty heavy showers overnight, and it looks like it’ll last through the Wednesday morning commute. There will be some slight weakening as the day progresses, but don’t expect Wednesday to be dry. For those who live near rivers or streams, there may be some minor flooding associated with this front, so be prepared. It looks like the front will bring in a little bit of CAPE, but not enough to warrant thunderstorms I think.

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Lots and lots of rain heading out way, after a brief spell of dryness Tuesday morning and afternoon. Possibility of some minor flooding here and there. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

With this new system moving in, along with the upper level trough dropping temperatures, we can expect some snow fall up in the higher elevations, mainly for the northern Cascades. It’ll start up Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday. It looks like the freezing level will be around 1800ft above ground level, so it’ll be sticking to the higher elevations.

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The snow will be sticking up to the higher elevations, but we’re starting to see more as we progress through the year. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

Cloud cover will increase overnight, giving some overcast skies for the Tuesday morning commute. There will be a brief break in the afternoon where there may be some sun breaks, but with that frontal system moving in, expect clouds to move in around the evening commute hours. From then on, don’t expect a break in the clouds.

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There will be a brief period where we’ll see some sunbreaks Tuesday afternoon, but that will quickly change to overcast after. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals,

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. Remember, this model is showing measurements in centi-inches (move the decimal left 2 spots!) SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals

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48hr snowfall totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 48-hour model snowfall; WA 48-hour snowfall

Winds will increase overnight, and will actually stay that way for most of the forecast. Strongest winds will be up in the mountains, and over waterways. Very strong winds will occur on the northern part of the Olympic Peninsula, and where the Strait turns into the Salish Sea, southwest of the northern Islands. Even though these areas will have the strongest winds, expect strong winds everywhere, especially over the waterways. I’m expecting sustained winds in the 20-25kt (23-28mph) range over land, 25-30kt (28-34mph) over water, with very strong gusts everywhere. Things will calm down quite a bit Wednesday morning, but will start to increase again as the day progresses. Thankfully the winds won’t be as strong as we saw on Tuesday, but gusty conditions are still expected. With the strong winds anticipated, be aware of falling/fallen debris on the road, and be prepared for possible power outages.

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Very strong winds are in the forecast, decent probability of some power outages. Watch out of fallen debris on the roadways! SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

We definitely won’t be seeing any temperatures like we saw over the weekend, so hopefully you enjoyed it while it lasted, because I don’t know when we’ll see that again. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s for the entire Sound, with lows only dropping to the mid 50s because of the clouds acting as an insulating blanket. Highs on Wednesday will be in the same range for the entire Sound, with the lows the same as well.

 

TL;DR: Definite cooldown, a lot more rain, and very strong winds. Yup, it’s fall.

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10/17/14: No home games, will it at least be nice outside while you watch the game inside?

I don’t really have anything clever to say here this time…It rained some, wind blew a lot, had a little bit of sun the other day. Yup, sounds like fall.

 

Recap

Thursday – High 71°F, Low 57°F; Mostly cloudy in the morning, with the clouds clearing up by the afternoon, which helped the temperature jump. Winds were breezy in the morning and afternoon, calming only a little bit in the early evening hours, and picking up again during the night.

Friday – High 64°F; Overcast all day, with rain moving in during the morning. As of right now, it looks like Boeing Field had gotten around 0.15in of rain, so not as much as we were expecting. Winds were fairly calm throughout the day as well.

 

WARNINGS – At this point, all we have are wind advisories. There is a Small Craft Advisory for the interior waterways, and a Gale Warning for the northern Islands. For more info, please see here.

 

The short wave trough that brought in the rain will continue on its way, letting in some warm air from a ridge that will hopefully make things nice for the weekend. The ridge will continue to build through Sunday, but it looks like the jet stream has a different plan in mind for the beginning of next week. We can see a new trough moving into the area by the end of the forecast period, so we can expect a wet beginning to the week, which may even start Sunday night.

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The trailing edge of a ridge will move into the area overnight, but a large trough is on its way for early next week. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

There isn’t too much info on the sea level pressure map until towards the end of the forecast period. By that time, we can see part of a very deep low way up by Alaska moving around, and it looks like the associated front will extend all the way down to our area. It looks like it’s a fairly slow moving front, and it doesn’t quite hit us by the end of the forecast, but it could be pushing some weather ahead of it. We’ll see how that works out in the next section.

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A front will start to move into the area on Sunday. By the end of the forecast it will be off the coast, but slowly moving in overnight. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m wind speeds, and temp

Showers will start to dry out overnight as the short wave trough moves away, with lingering showers up in the Cascades and south Sound. Everything should clear up for the most part by Saturday night. Sunday looks like it’ll start out dry, with only a few showers up in the mountains. However, towards the end of the forecast in the afternoon, we can see the frontal system start to inch its way in. By 8pm it’ll be just the coast, but looking ahead (past when the loop stops), the system won’t hit our area in force until commute time Monday. Of course, the timing may vary slightly since this is towards the end of the model, so don’t be surprised if it happens sooner or later. No CAPE on the model, so no thunderstorms.

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Showers will start to dry out overnight, and will stay that way through Sunday night. Monday is definitely looking to start wet. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

Clouds will start to clear up some by Saturday morning, so we can expect mostly clear skies for much of Saturday, and into Sunday as well. Clouds will start to increase by late evening as the front starts to move in, but it looks like the clouds will be isolated with the front. We’ll see how it plays out after the front for the next forecast.

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As with the rain, the clouds will start to clear up some by Saturday afternoon. From there, skies should be mostly clear until the front moves in Sunday night. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Saturday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Sunday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will slowly start to calm down some as we progress into Saturday afternoon. the northern Islands will still see some high winds, along with the Olympics, but they won’t be as bad as they have been. As we progress overnight, the winds in the Interior will calm down more, but the Olympics will start to see stronger winds as that front slowly starts to make its way towards the coast. Sunday afternoon and evening will see some breezy conditions for the Sound, with the winds over the Olympics continuing to be strong.

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Winds will start to calm for most of the Sound by Saturday, but should pick up a little by Sunday evening again. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the warmer air moving in for Saturday and part of Sunday, we can definitely expect a warmer weekend. Highs on Saturday will reach into the mid to high 60s for the majority of the Sound, with Kitsap having slightly cooler highs. Lows will be in the mid 50s for the entire Sound, warming as you move inland. Sunday will see even warmer temperatures, with the majority of the Sound reaching high 60s, maybe even low 70s. Both Kitsap and south Sound can expect slightly cooler temperatures, but not by much. Lows will be in the mid to high 50s.

 

TL;DR: Nice weekend before more rain moves in!

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10/15/2014: Ok, that’s enough rain…do we get a break?

Quite a bit of rain moved into the area over the past couple of days. Hopefully you didn’t find out you had a hole in your shoe the hard way!

 

Recap

Tuesday – High 63°F, Low 56°F; Mostly cloudy throughout the day, with breezy conditions through early afternoon. A few showers rolled through as well, with Boeing Field measuring 0.11in for the day.

Wednesday – High 62°F; Overcast all day with a couple sun breaks here and there. Winds were a bit stronger today, especially in the afternoon with gusts measuring up to 25mph. Quite a few showers as well, measuring almost half an inch at Boeing Field.

 

WARNINGS – There are a few items out right now. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the waters of the Sound. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern Island waterways as well, but more importantly, there is a Gale Watch as well. Winds are looking pretty strong in this area, so I anticipate a warning to come out once the storm gets closer. For more info, please see here.

 

The jet stream will start to do some funny things overnight, and by Tuesday, it looks like a small ridge will start to build. This means we’ll be getting at least a little bit of a break from the weather. As we progress into Friday, the jet stream will start to get its act together, and even though it looks like a ridge is starting to build, there is a short wave trough that will move through and bring in some more wet weather.

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A small ridge will start to build on Thursday, but a short wave trough will move into the area for Friday, bringing with it a lot of weather. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

It looks like a fairly large front attached to a pretty deep low will swing over to the coast by Thursday evening. It looks like it kind of stalls on the coast as it hits the Olympics, so we’ll have to see what it does with precipitation in the next model. It does look like there will be quite a bit of wind associated with this system, given the small space between the isobars. By Friday it looks like things will start to calm down some for the pressure, but I’m sure it will be leaving behind some “presents.”

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A large front will approach the coast, and stall just at the coast Thursday night. By Friday morning, it will start to move inland. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m winds, and temp

The rain will start to dry out some overnight, with the exception of a few showers in the Olympics. As expected with the frontal system moving in, we see a large rain system moving to the coast, but as mentioned above, the brunt of it will be stalled. Good news for us, bad news for the coast. Showers will reach into the Olympics and north Cascades through the night, and by commute time Friday we’ll start seeing some of the showers move into the area. Hardest hit in the morning will be Kitsap and central Sound, but it doesn’t look to be too much. That will all change by the 2nd commute time when everyone is going home. The frontal system will finally break free of its bonds, and progress into the area. Heaviest rain will be around this time, especially for the Olympics, Kitsap, and central Sound, and should start to weaken some by the end of the forecast. The CAPE model is pulling up blank, so no thunderstorms this round.

No significant snow to report on for this batch. Even with the frontal system moving in, it looks like the temperatures will be too warm for it. There may be some mix in the higher elevations, but no real accumulations.

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Expect Thursday to be mostly dry, but quite a bit more rain move in for Friday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

We’ll have mostly cloudy to overcast skies tonight, and there will be a slight clearing Thursday afternoon. After that, with the large system moving in, we can expect overcast skies by Thursday evening, and continuing on through the end of the forecast.

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Mostly cloudy to overcast skies through Friday, with a couple possible breaks Thursday night/Friday morning. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. Keep in mind this image is at 5pm, so there will be more rain between then and the actual end of the forecast at 8pm. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Winds will continue to stay windy overnight, with some slight calming Thursday afternoon and evening. The Olympics and Strait will see strong winds for the majority of the day on Thursday, and they will just get stronger as the day moves on. By late Thursday evening, north Sound will start to see stronger winds as well. Winds will get very strong in the Olympics and the Strait, with sustained winds reaching into the 30kt (34mph) range. The Sound will start out somewhat calm, but winds will pick up as the day progresses, so expect strong winds throughout the day. With the strong winds, be prepared for possible power outages, and watch for debris on the ground as you’re driving around.

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Expect strong winds over the next couple of days, especially in the mountains and up in the northern Islands. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speed; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

With the small ridge building up, we can expect some slightly warmer temperatures for Thursday at least. Highs will be in the mid to high 60s for the entire Sound, with the slight chance of warmer temperatures depending on what the clouds do. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s, with the clouds keeping the heat in. Friday will see slightly cooler temperatures with the front moving in, only getting up to the low 60s for most of the Sound, cooling as you move north and also inland. Lows will be the same as Thursday, low to mid 50s.

 

TL;DR: We’ll get a brief break on Thursday, but we’ll be back to the rain by Thursday night and for Friday.

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10/13/14: Bye Sun!

Well, it looks like that time has come. It’s been a pretty nice fall so far, but we’re used to more rain for fall as well. Worry no more, it’s on its way!

Also, how about that waterspout in south Sound? I didn’t even see NWS predicting that many thunderstorms, much less one that would create a waterspout. Just goes to show how unpredictable weather can be, and we just have to do our best to predict it (which is pretty good).

 

Recap

Saturday – High 67°F, Low 55°F; Scattered showers througout the day, mainly in the afternoon and evening. There were a few thunderstorms that went through, including one that created a waterspout in south Sound! Winds got pretty strong in the early afternoon as well. There were a few sun breaks here and there in the evening hours, but other than that it was mostly cloudy.

Sunday – High 66°F, Low 54°F; Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day, with a few showers in the evening hours. Winds were a pretty calm throughout the day, with a few breezes in the afternoon.

Monday – High 71°F; Mostly cloudy skies for the day with a few sun breaks here and there. No rain to speak of, but plenty is on the way. Winds started to pick up again starting mid morning, and has continued since.

 

WARNINGS – At this point there is one advisory, and that is a Small Craft Advisory for all inland waterways and the Strait. There is a Gale Warning for the northern Islands and a Wind Advisory for the coast, but those will be expiring tonight, and I don’t think they will be renewing those. For more info, please see here.

 

As expected, the large trough will start to make its transit overnight tonight, bringing with it quite a bit of weather. It starts to show signs of weakening by Tuesday evening, and will continue to weaken as we progress to the end of the forecast. By that time, we’ll be close to the trailing edge of the trough, but the way the jet stream is positioned at that point, I don’t anticipate the weather to let up any more than it did after the initial hit.

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The large trough will continue to move into the area, but will start to weaken as the forecast progresses. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds, heights

A frontal system will move through the area tonight, and after that I don’t see any new fronts. The pressure will fluctuate a little bit though, so that may cause the winds to switch around a bit.

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We’ll have a frontal system move through tonight, but no other visible fronts after. The way the pressure will be lining up will cause some increased winds on Wednesday, but nothing like a wind storm. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; SLP, 10 m wind speed, and temp

As you can see by the first image of the precipitation model, the frontal precipitation will already be upon us by posting time. Expect heavy rains tonight (and some snow in the mountains, more on that in a bit), and things should slowly start to clear up for the most party by Tuesday afternoon. After that, it looks like we’ll have some more non-frontal strong systems roll in overnight into Wednesday morning. Wednesday will see scattered showers throughout the day, mainly in the mountains, and south and north Sound. Not making the same mistake I did last time, it looks like there’s quite a bit of CAPE moving in with this system as well. I don’t anticipate any thunderstorms since the temperature is coming down, but there is still the possibility.

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A large frontal band of rain will move in tonight and start to weaken by Tuesday afternoon, but then right after that we’ll have a large non-frontal system move in for Tuesday evening. Wednesday will see scattered showers throughout the day. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour preicpitatoin

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There is some CAPE making it into the area with the large low, but the temperature may prevent anything strong developing. SOURCE: UW Models; 12km Surface; CAPE (Convective available potential energy)

As I hinted at above, the frontal system and the systems that follow will bring some snow to the mountains. It’s still restricted to the higher elevations, but if you’re like me and eying your snowboard or skis right now, it’s a start. There isn’t too much on the model, but I’ll be posting it just so you can see it.

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Not much for this model, but there’s enough to post! Mainly in the higher elevations and for the northern Cascades, some areas like the northern reaches of Lake Chelan will see some. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 3-hour model snowfall; WA 3-hour snowfall

It looks like skies are going to be cloudy at least through late Tuesday, where we’ll have at least some clearing. Things will be overcast again until late Wednesday afternoon. At that point, we can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies.

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Expect mostly cloudy and overcast skies for the next couple of days. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals. Keep in mind, the amounts are in “centi-inches,” so for your area amount, just take the number on the scale and move the decimal over to the left 2 spots. 0.5cin = 0.005in, and so on.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Tuesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

And here are the 48hr snowfall totals.

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48hr snowfall totals as of Wednesday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Snow; 24-hour model snowfall; WA 24-hour snowfall

Winds will start to calm down overnight, with winds over the waterways taking a little longer to come down. Most of Tuesday looks to stay on the calm side, but by late evening the winds will start to pick up again, especially Kitsap, and south and central Sound. These winds will send a strong burst up north for a little bit, and by commute time we’ll see fairly strong winds for the entire Sound, closest to and over water having the strongest. These winds will stay on the strong side throughout the day, so if you’re driving around, be aware of fallen debris. It still might be a little early for dead branches, but better safe than sorry.

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Winds will start to calm overnight, but will pick up again by Wednesday morning. These winds will be a little on the stronger side, so be aware for fallen debris. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speeds; Western WA 10m Wind Speed

Temperatures over the next couple of days will be a little cooler than what we’ve seen, but with the clouds sticking around, there won’t be much of a difference between the high and the low. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 60s for the entire Sound, with a chance at higher temperatures mainly in north Sound. Lows will be in the low 50s, with a chance for slightly higher temperatures closer to water. Wednesday will see more uniform highs, once again in the low 60s, but less chance of higher temperatures elsewhere. Lows will be the same as previously.

 

TL;DR: Fall is finally moving in, with some long periods of showers that don’t show too many signs of stopping anytime soon.

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10/10/14: Hopefully you didn’t put your rain jackets away yet.

The past couple of days definitely felt like fall. The temperatures were cool but not cold, sun was still trying to come out, and my favorite part, we had some wind blowing through. Is this trend going to continue over the weekend?

 

Recap

Thursday – High 65, Low 52; Fog in the morning kept temperatures feeling warm for a low. That started to burn off by the afternoon, letting the sun warm us up at least a few degrees. Winds started to get a little breezy in the afternoon, but it didn’t last too long.

Friday – High 68; A very foggy start to the day, it cleared up for the most part by mid morning. Skies have been mostly cloudy since, with a few showers rolling in in the past couple of hours. Winds were very windy as well, with a number of strong gusts in the afternoon.

 

WARNINGS – No advisories, watches, or warnings for the interior, but if you find yourself on the coast, there is a High Surf Advisory in effect. I’ve heard some meteorologists say the swells could be as high as 12ft. For more info, please see here.

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys (Kickoff 1:25pm) – It looks like we’ll be dry for kickoff and the game, but things will be cloudy and cool. Kickoff temperatures should be in the low to mid 60s, and will stay around there for the game.

 

The jet stream will continue to move south overnight, bringing in some cold and slightly unstable air. This will be the case for all of Saturday, but by Sunday morning a small ridge will start to build and move into the area. At this point, we’ll only get the very top of the ridge, so there won’t be too much of a warm up. The forecast period ends at 8pm Sunday, but as you can see from the model, expect a large trough to move into the area starting next week, which should be bringing in more cold air, and some rain as well. Just thought I’d toss a heads up your way for Monday.

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The jet stream will dip to the south of us, which will keep things cool. A small ridge will try to move in on Sunday, but it isn’t very successful. SOURCE: UW Models; 36km 500mb; Temps, winds heights

I don’t see much going on with the pressure map today. Just a jumbled mess of isobars, so the weather is trying to figure out if we should have higher pressure or lower pressure. Since there isn’t anything too useful on the map, I will be skipping it for this forecast.

Showers will start to clear out overnight, but that will only last until around Saturday afternoon. By evening more rain will move in, with the strongest over the Cascades. It will be pretty short lived, at least for the lowlands. Those showers should clear up by early Sunday morning, with the Cascade showers going until Sunday afternoon. At the very end of the forecast period Sunday night, you can see a very large system moving in. Although I won’t be posting past the usual forecast period, I’ll at least tell you that the first part of that system will be short lived, but don’t expect a dry Monday. The mountains will see some scattered snow showers, but mainly at the higher elevations. Don’t get your skiis and boards out just yet, but you may want to start thinking about a wax soon.

Cloud cover will star to clear up some overnight, and will increase to mostly cloudy with the system moving in. Since most of the rain will be in the foothills and north Sound, expect central and south Sound to have some sun breaks. Things will stay partly cloudy through the night, but once the afternoon rolls around, expect increasing cloud cover with the large system moving in. I don’t anticipate either morning to have fog, so at least we won’t have to worry about that.

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Expect rain for Saturday, mainly in the mountains. Things will dry up for most of Sunday, but there’s a large system moving in after that… SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 3-hour precipitation; WA 3-hour precipitation

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Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through the weekend, with a few sunbreaks. Sunday will see increasing clouds towards the afternoon. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Cloud; Column-integrated cloud water

Here are the 24hr precipitation totals.

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24hr precipitation totals as of Thursday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

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24hr precipitation totals as of Friday evening. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Precip; 24-hour precipitation; WA 24-hour precipitation

Don’t expect the winds to calm any time soon. Looks like they will try to overnight, but just pick up again by morning. Strongest winds will be up in the Strait , but central Sound and Kitsap will see some strong winds as well. The winds will at least start to calm on Sunday, but expect a breeze or two still. Make sure if you’re out and about on Saturday to keep an eye out for falling or fallen debris. The strongest sustained winds I see will be around 15kts (17mph), and gusts up to 25kts (28mph).

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Winds will be pretty breezy through Saturday, but should calm some by Sunday. SOURCE: UW Models; 4km Surface; 10m Wind Speeds; Western WA 10m Wind Speeds

Temperatures over the weekend will be pretty similar to what we’ve seen, if not a little cooler. Saturday will see highs in the mid 60s for most of the Sound, with a chance of higher temperatures in south Sound and the northern part of Hood Canal. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s. Sunday will once again see highs in the mid 60s, this time more uniform for the Sound. Lows will be in the mid 50s.

 

TL;DR: Cool weekend with some showers. Shouldn’t be a problem for the Seahawks, hopefully the Cowboys don’t like the cold.

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